Axis Bank Q4 preview: PAT seen muted YoY; margin pressure persists amid strong loan growth; 8 things to watch

Axis Bank is expected to report a steady yet mixed performance for Q4FY26, with profit growth remaining under pressure year-on-year, even as sequential trends improve. Brokerages largely see stable operating performance supported by healthy loan and deposit growth, though margins are likely to remain under pressure due to rate transmission.

The net profit for the quarter ended March 31, 2026 is estimated to fall 2%-7% year-on-year, pegged in the range of Rs 6,627 crore to Rs 7,010 crore, according to estimates by Nomura, ICICI Securities, Nuvama Institutional Equities and Kotak Equities.

Net interest income (NII) for the private lender could grow by up to 7%, brokerages estimated, forecasting it between Rs 14,657 crore and Rs 14,720 crore in the quarter under review.


Axis Bank will announce its earnings on Saturday, April 25.

Here’s what brokerages expect across eight key parameters:

PAT

• Nomura estimates PAT at Rs 7,010 crore, down 2% YoY but up 8% QoQ.
  
• ICICI Securities pegs PAT at Rs 6,627 crore, down 6.9% YoY and up 2.1% QoQ.
  
• Nuvama expects PAT at Rs 6,740 crore, down 5.3% YoY and up 3.8% QoQ.
  
• Kotak Equities estimates PAT at Rs 6,872 crore, down 3% YoY and up 6% QoQ.
  

NII

• Nomura sees NII at Rs 14,700 crore, up 6% YoY and 3% QoQ.
  
• ICICI Securities estimates NII at Rs 14,664 crore, up 6.2% YoY and 2.6% QoQ.
  
• Nuvama pegs NII at Rs 14,720 crore, up 6.6% YoY and 3.1% QoQ.
  
• Kotak Equities expects NII at Rs 14,657 crore, up 6% YoY and 2.6% QoQ.
  

Pre-Provision Operating Profit (PPoP)

• Nomura estimates PPoP at Rs 11,560 crore, up 8% YoY and 6% QoQ.
  
• Nuvama expects PPoP at Rs 11,040 crore, up 2.7% YoY and 1.6% QoQ.
  
• Kotak Equities pegs PPoP at Rs 11,660 crore, up 8% YoY and 7.2% QoQ.
  

Net Interest Margins (NIMs)

• Nomura estimates NIMs at 3.4%, down 27 bps YoY and 7 bps QoQ.
  
• ICICI Securities pegs NIMs at 3.57%, down 40 bps YoY and 7 bps QoQ.
  
• Nuvama expects NIMs at 3.58%, down 39 bps YoY and 6 bps QoQ.
  
• Kotak Equities sees NIMs at 3.41%, down 29 bps YoY and 9 bps QoQ.
  

Brokerages highlight margin pressure from repo rate transmission, partly offset by term deposit repricing and CRR-related benefits.

Loans & deposits

Loan growth remains robust across estimates, while deposit traction stays healthy.

• Nomura estimates loans at Rs 12.32 lakh crore (18% YoY, 6% QoQ) and deposits at Rs 13.36 lakh crore (14% YoY, 6% QoQ).
  
• ICICI Securities pegs advances at Rs 12.04 lakh crore (4% YoY, 16% QoQ).
  
• Nuvama expects loans at Rs 12.44 lakh crore (20% YoY, 7.3% QoQ) and deposits at Rs 13.35 lakh crore (13.9% YoY, 5.9% QoQ).
  
• Kotak Equities estimates loans at Rs 12.32 lakh crore (18% YoY, 6.3% QoQ) and deposits at Rs 13.36 lakh crore (14% YoY, 6% QoQ).
  

Asset quality

Asset quality is expected to remain broadly stable, though some pressure may persist in retail segments.

• Nomura estimates provisions at Rs 2,190 crore, up 61% YoY and 3% QoQ.
  
• ICICI Securities expects slippages at Rs 5,097 crore, up 6.1% YoY but down 15.1% QoQ.
  
• Nuvama pegs slippages at Rs 5,890 crore, up 23% YoY and down 2% QoQ.
  
• Kotak Equities estimates slippages at around Rs 5,000 crore (1.8% of loans), largely led by retail.
  

Credit cost

• Nomura estimates credit cost at 0.7%, up 20 bps YoY and down 6 bps QoQ.
  
• Nuvama pegs credit cost at 0.70%, up 18 bps YoY and down 7 bps QoQ.
  
• Kotak Equities expects credit cost at 1.20%, up 66 bps YoY and 39 bps QoQ.
  

Key monitorables

• Liquidity coverage ratio (LCR) trends in Q4 (Nomura)
  
• Commentary on asset quality and credit cost trajectory
  
• NIM outlook amid rate cycle changes
  
• Loan growth sustainability and deposit traction
  
• RoE normalisation and profitability outlook (Kotak Equities)
  

(Disclaimer: The recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times.)