Adani Energy Solutions shares down 36% from peak. Can the stock breakout above Rs 940 after Q1 earnings?

Shares of Adani Energy Solutions, the transmission and distribution arm of billionaire Gautam Adani’s infrastructure empire, have fallen 36% from their August 2024 peak, with the stock trading in a tight range ahead of the June-quarter earnings due Thursday. Investors are now eyeing whether the results might provide the spark for a move toward Rs 940, an upside target several analysts say could mark the start of a short-term rally.

The stock has been locked in a sideways trend, with no clear directional bias, as technical indicators flash mixed signals. Despite a 3% gain over the past month, the shares are down 3% in the last two weeks.

While the stock is trading above its long-term moving averages, it remains below several key short-term levels, suggesting a loss of momentum ahead of the results. Since the start of the year, shares are up 7.2%, but they’ve declined 8% over the past three months. The stock trades at 4.75 times its book value.

Support at Rs 840, resistance near Rs 900

Nilesh Jain, Head VP – Technical and Derivatives Research at Centrum Broking, said the 200-day moving average at Rs 840 is a critical support level. “The important support is at Rs 840, that's 200-DMA and if it breaks the same then further fall towards Rs 800 can't be ruled out. On the contrary, a break above Rs 900 will open upside towards Rs 960 levels. At present it's moving sideways and there is no clear trend now.”

Laxmikant Shukla, Senior Manager – Technical Analyst at YES Securities, said the stock is stuck between short-term weakness and long-term resilience. “The stock is currently exhibiting weak near-term momentum as it trades below its short-term (20-DMA) and medium-term (50-DMA) moving averages, suggesting persistent selling pressure. However, the fact that it continues to hold above its long-term support levels (100-DMA and 200-DMA) indicates that the broader uptrend remains intact.”

Shukla said the stock is consolidating between Rs 840 and Rs 885. “The stock remains in corrective mode as it trades below its 20 and 50-day SMAs, lacking any significant base formation or reversal signals. For trend reversal confirmation, watch for: 1) strong buying interest at 840 support and 2) decisive breakout above 885 with volume support.”

Targeting Rs 940, or heading lower?

“Adani Energy Solutions is currently trading in a sideways range, forming a symmetrical triangle pattern on the daily chart,” said Mandar Bhojane, Senior Research Analyst at Choice Broking. “The stock is taking support at the 100-EMA but remains below the 20, 50, and 200-day EMAs, indicating cautious undertone ahead of its Q1 FY26 results. A decisive close above the Rs 885 level could open the gates for a short-term rally towards Rs 950–980, while a breakdown below Rs 860 may trigger a correction towards Rs 820–800 levels.”

“The stock has immediate support near Rs 840, and tomorrow’s earnings could act as a key trigger to break this consolidation zone and define the next directional move,” said Bhojane.

Drumil Vithlani, Technical Research Analyst at Bonanza, said the stock appears to be in a base-building phase, with its next move hinging on whether it can decisively clear the Rs 880 mark. “Key support lies at Rs 850, with immediate resistance at Rs 880,” Vithlani noted, adding that a break above this level could open the door to Rs 920 and possibly Rs 940. “Conversely, a dip below Rs 850 may drag the stock toward Rs 825.”

All eyes on Q1 earnings

Adani Energy Solutions is scheduled to report its unaudited Q1 FY26 results on Thursday, July 24. The company last posted a 78% year-over-year jump in net profit to Rs 647 crore for the March quarter, while revenue rose 35% to Rs 6,375 crore. Its transmission and distribution segments reported strong growth, with revenue rising to Rs 2,247 crore and Rs 2,907 crore respectively.

Thursday’s earnings may help resolve the current technical deadlock. For now, traders are watching the Rs 840–885 range closely, waiting to see if the stock can reclaim momentum and test the Rs 940 mark, or if another leg lower is in store.

Also read | Aditya Birla Real Estate shares down 32% from peak. Can the stock reclaim Rs 2,400 post Q1 results?

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)