5 warhorse stocks you can use to ride through a narrow market

Analysts are bullish on these counters despite the ongoing choppiness in the market.

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As analysts project the market to remain narrow until clarity emerges on the coronavirus pandemic, it makes sense to look at companies that have retained their positions among the top 10 Nifty constituents all these years.
Tried and tested business models that have stood through many storms on Dalal Street have delivered up to 1,260 per cent returns to investors in last 15 years.

As analysts project the market to remain narrow until clarity emerges on the coronavirus pandemic, it makes sense to look at companies that have retained their positions among the top 10 Nifty constituents all these years.

The list includes energy-to-telecom major Reliance Industries (RIL), IT majors Infosys and Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), private sector lender ICICI Bank and FMCG player ITC. Analysts are bullish on these counters despite the ongoing choppiness in the market.


With about 1,260 per cent rally since 2005, TCS stands out as top performer in the pack. It is followed by Reliance Industries (up 1,250 per cent), Infosys (up 420 per cent), ITC (up 400 per cent) and ICICI Bank (up 320 per cent).

“The market is going to remain narrow until credit growth comes back in the economy,” says Samit Vartak, Founding Partner and Chief Investment Officer, SageOne Investment Advisors.

The Reliance Industries stock has created a lot of buzz in recent weeks, as the company secured four back-to-back investments in less than four in its digital business Jio Platforms.
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The company has also launched India’s biggest-ever right issue of Rs 53,125 crore, which opened for subscription on Wednesday.

The company allowed existing shareholders to pay only 25 per cent for subscribing to the issue, with the balance required to be paid in two installments in May and November next year. The company will offer one share for every 15 shares held at Rs 1,257 apiece.

Sanjeev Hota, head of research at Sharekhan, advised existing investors to opt for the rights issue with a 3-4 years investment horizon. He said new investors can buy RIL in a staggered manner over next 6-8 months.

The stock is down 4 per cent on a year-to-date basis, while the benchmark equity indices are down over 20 per cent for the same period.
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TCS posted lower profits for March quarter at Rs 8,049 crore, but guided towards a very difficult time ahead which, it said, may even result in a ‘contraction’ in revenues in the first two quarters of FY21, as global clients fight the Covid-19 impact.

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Dalal Street gave a thumbs down to government's Rs 20 lakh crore stimulus package, saying it may fail to revive the economy in near-term. On Monday, stark warnings of an impending recession and the possibility of an escalation in trade tensions between the US and China kept market mood sombre.

Amid uncertainty, analysts advise investors to adopt a stock-specific approach. "Traders and investors should refrain from chasing up-moves, if there is any and avoid creating any aggressive positions on either side. A cautious approach is advised for days ahead," said Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA and founder of Gemstone Equity Research & Advisory Services.

Based on various brokerage recommendations, here are a few stock ideas that analysts say can offer good returns over the next 3-4 weeks:

Dalal Street gave a thumbs down to government's Rs 20 lakh crore stimulus package, saying it may fail to revive the economy in near-term. On Monday, stark warnings of an impending recession and the p..
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This counter appears to have decoupled itself from the broader direction of the markets as it is displaying a better relative strength compared to major indices, the analyst said. Interestingly, it has not participated in the selloff witnessed las Thursday and on Friday it witnessed a sharp rise on the back of huge volumes, suggesting that a fresh leg of upswing is unfolding. Hence, positional traders can look to buy into this counter for a target price of Rs 77 with a stop below Rs 61 on a closing basis, he added.

[Mazhar Mohammad, Chief Strategist – Technical Research, Chartviewindia.in]
This counter appears to have decoupled itself from the broader direction of the markets as it is displaying a better relative strength compared to major indices, the analyst said. Interestingly, it h..
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This counter appears to have formed a short-term bottom around Rs 157 levels after retracing 62% of its last leg of the rally from the lows of Rs 138-193 levels. Hence, sustaining above Rs 157, it shall ideally head to test its interim top-placed around Rs 185 levels, the analyst said. Positional traders can buy into this counter and look for a target of Rs 184 with a stop below Rs 156 on closing basis.

[Mazhar Mohammad, Chief Strategist – Technical Research, Chartviewindia.in]
This counter appears to have formed a short-term bottom around Rs 157 levels after retracing 62% of its last leg of the rally from the lows of Rs 138-193 levels. Hence, sustaining above Rs 157, it sh..
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A short term bottom appears to be in place around Rs 307 after the stock retraced around 50% of its last leg of the rally from the lows of Rs 252–375 levels. Moreover, strong move in the last session with relatively higher volumes is hinting that a pullback swing is in the offing, the analyst said. Hence, positional traders are advised to buy into this counter and look for a target of Rs 357. The stop loss suggested for the trade is close below 306.

[Mazhar Mohammad, Chief Strategist – Technical Research, Chartviewindia.in]
A short term bottom appears to be in place around Rs 307 after the stock retraced around 50% of its last leg of the rally from the lows of Rs 252–375 levels. Moreover, strong move in the last session..
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The stock price was in a sustained downtrend over the last few weeks. Recently, it shifted to a consolidation pattern and formed an important swing low of Rs 169 levels on 11th May. Last week’s sharp upside bounce could now be considered as an upside breakout of few sessions range movement, the analyst said. This could also signal a possibility of important bottom formation at Rs 169-Rs 170 levels. The volume has improved during recent upside bounce in the stock price and momentum oscillator has started to show positive indication. The analyst said buying can be initiated in the stock and one can add more on dips down to Rs 183 and wait for an upside target of Rs 214 in the next 3-4 weeks. Stop loss for the trade is recommended at Rs 177.

[Nagaraj Shetti, Technical Research Analyst, HDFC securities]
The stock price was in a sustained downtrend over the last few weeks. Recently, it shifted to a consolidation pattern and formed an important swing low of Rs 169 levels on 11th May. Last week’s sharp..
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After witnessing a sharp weakness in the month of March 2020, this commodity exchange stock has shifted into a larger consolidation pattern in the last one month. It has formed a symmetrical triangle type pattern, which was unfolding over the last month. The stock price is currently making an attempt of an upside breakout of that pattern around Rs 1,150, the analyst said. The recent upside breakout was accompanied by the rise in the volume and daily and weekly 14 period RSI shows positive indication. Buying can be initiated in MCX and one can add more on dips down to Rs 1,112 and wait for the upside target of Rs 1,260 in the next 3-4 weeks. Stop loss for the trade is suggested at Rs 1,091.

[Nagaraj Shetti, Technical Research Analyst, HDFC securities]
After witnessing a sharp weakness in the month of March 2020, this commodity exchange stock has shifted into a larger consolidation pattern in the last one month. It has formed a symmetrical triangle..
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On the daily and weekly charts, the stock has formed strong bullish Higher High and Higher Bottom series. Incremental volume activity near breakout level indicates high chances of the fresh uptrend from current levels. Currently, the stock is trading well above short term as well medium-term averages which advocates uptrend wave will likely to continue in the near term, the analyst said. He recommends buying the stock with a target price of Rs 881 and suggested stop loss at Rs 795.

[Shrikant Chouhan, Executive Vice President, Equity Technical Research at Kotak Securities]
On the daily and weekly charts, the stock has formed strong bullish Higher High and Higher Bottom series. Incremental volume activity near breakout level indicates high chances of the fresh uptrend f..
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Post sharp fall from Rs 260 to Rs 115, the stock is witnessing narrow range price action scale Rs 125 to Rs 150. However, on daily and weekly charts, the stock has formed double bottom kind of pattern along with modest volume activity which indicates pullback rally is likely to continue in the near term, the analyst said. In addition, on monthly charts, it has formed ‘Hammer’ kind of strong reversal pattern which suggests high chances of medium-term uptrend wave from current levels. In short-run, Rs 132 should be the key level to watch. If the stock manages to trade above the same, then we can expect uptrend continuation wave up to 155. The stop loss for the stock should be placed at Rs 132.

[Shrikant Chouhan, Executive Vice President, Equity Technical Research at Kotak Securities]
Post sharp fall from Rs 260 to Rs 115, the stock is witnessing narrow range price action scale Rs 125 to Rs 150. However, on daily and weekly charts, the stock has formed double bottom kind of patter..
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After a short term correction from Rs 1,250 to Rs 1,000, the stock reversed sharply from its previous support level. The reversal rally was quick and price dominating. Incremental volume activity post reversal pattern clearly suggests that the bulls are dominating the price action. In addition, after a long time, the stock comfortably managed to close above short term averages along with positive SAR series that indicates a strong possibility of the fresh uptrend from current levels, the analyst said, recommending target price of Rs 1,155 and stop loss at Rs 1,045.

[Shrikant Chouhan, Executive Vice President, Equity Technical Research at Kotak Securities]
After a short term correction from Rs 1,250 to Rs 1,000, the stock reversed sharply from its previous support level. The reversal rally was quick and price dominating. Incremental volume activity pos..
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On the monthly chart, the stock has turned higher after taking support at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and is on the verge of a breakout from line resistance placed at Rs 630. Further, on the daily chart, the stock continues to make higher lows and higher high, conforming bullishness. A trade beyond Rs 630 will take it higher to levels of Rs 670-700, the analyst said. The RSI has also turned up north from the neutral level of 50 and has formed a positive reversal, suggesting that bullishness is dominant in the stock. The stock can be bought in the range of Rs 623-627 for targets of Rs 670-700, keeping a stop loss below 595, the analyst added.

[Aditya Agarwala, Technical Research Analyst, YES Securities]
On the monthly chart, the stock has turned higher after taking support at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and is on the verge of a breakout from line resistance placed at Rs 630. Further, on th..
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Infosys reported a 6.3 per cent increase in consolidated net profit for March quarter, but refrained from providing any revenue guidance for FY21, citing uncertainty amid the pandemic.

“We are positive on Infosys and TCS amid a falling rupee. They also quality as defensives, which are now the flavour of the season,” said Ajit Mishra, VP Research at Religare Broking

Shares of Infosys and TCS are down nearly 10 per cent so far in 2020.

FMCG player ITC trades at deep value with a superior high quality franchise, says Manish Sonthalia, Associate Director and Head Portfolio Management Services, Motilal Oswal Asset Management.

“ITC is a free cash flow-generating machine. The growth factor is going to be there. It is hard to believe that a company with 10 per cent growth have just about less than 15 P/E multiple,” he said. Shares of the company are down 31 per cent on a year-to-date basis till May 18.

ICICI Bank reported a 6.91 per cent growth in March quarter profit at Rs 1,251 crore on a consolidated basis, after setting aside over Rs 2,000 crore towards provisions for the potential impact of the Covid-19 pandemic. Analysts said, the recent fall in ICICI Bank stock provides an opportunity to buy it for the long run. The scrip is down 45 per cent on a YTD basis.

Mishra said the ongoing selloff in financial counters may drag Nifty towards the 8,400 level. “However, I will be a buyer in ICICI Bank at Rs 270-280 level from a long-term perspective,” he said.

HDFC Securities is positive on ICICI Bank with a price target of Rs 442. “Covid-19 will impact growth and asset quality across the board. A robust balance sheet, improved underwriting practices and lower exposure to contextually vulnerable products will help ICICI Bank to emerge stronger,” the brokerage said in a May 10 report.
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