Ultratech Cement Q3 Preview: PAT may fall 29% YoY; realisations to be lower

Cement major Ultratech is likely to see a decline in its profitability in the quarter ended December 2024, while the topline may rise marginally.

Revenue from operations during the third quarter could rise just 1% year-on-year (YoY), according to an average estimate of four brokerages. Profit after tax (PAT) may decline 29% YoY.

EBITDA for the quarter is estimated to decline 14% YoY and operating margins may contract 3.1 pp YoY to 16%.


Ultratech is seeing pricing pressure from peer groups despite having a strong branding and market presence. Analysts also expect lower realizations during the quarter mainly on account of weak white cement and clinker sales.

Here's what to expect from Ultratech Q3

Kotak Equities

We factor in volumes of 28.4 million tonnes during the quarter. We estimate blended realizations to increase 1.6% QoQ due to price hikes in most regions during the quarter.

We estimate costs/tonne to decrease 2.7% QoQ, led by operating leverage and moderating energy costs. We estimate EBITDA/tonne to increase sequentially to Rs 958 per tonne, led by a combination of price hikes and lower costs during the quarter.

Nuvama

Volumes are expected to rise 6% YoY. Grey cement realisations to rise 2.5% QoQ . Overall, EBITDA/t may fall to Rs 926 as against Rs 1191 in the same quarter of the previous year.

Motilal Oswal

Sales volume is expected to increase 10% YoY and blended realization is likely to decline 8% YoY. RMC revenue is expected to increase 10% YoY, whereas white cement revenue is expected to increase 1% YoY.

We expect EBITDA/t at Rs 925 versus Rs 1,191 per Rs 725 in 3QFY24/2QFY25. Variable cost per tonne is estimated to decline 5% YoY and opex/t is likely to dip 4% YoY.

YES Securities

As a pan-India player, we see 11% YoY and 9% QoQ volume growth in 3Q by factoring in 75% CUR. We are factoring in lower CUR due to intensifying competition from key regional players.

However, improved cost efficiency resulted in an EBITDA per ton of Rs 855 in 3Q.

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