Titan Q1 Preview: A tepid quarter on the cards with muted profitability

Titan is expected to see a tepid first quarter amid lower number of wedding days, rising gold prices and increasing competition from regional players.

Net sales for April-June 2024 are likely to rise 6% year-on-year, according to an average estimate of four brokerages. Net profit for the quarter is likely to decline marginally by 1%.

The most optimistic estimate for the profit is by Motilal Oswal, where it expects the bottomline to grow around 10% year-on-year.


In the preceding March quarter, the consumer discretionary major reported a 7% year-on-year jump in its standalone net profit at Rs 786 crore. Net sales in January-March 2024 period advanced 17% YoY to Rs 10,047 crore.

Here's what analysts expect from Titan's Q1

Motilal Oswal

We expect consol. revenue growth of 10% YoY in 1QFY25. We anticipate jewelry segment revenue growth of 9% YoY (ex-bullion), with a five-year revenue CAGR of 20%.

GP margin expected to expand by 50 bps YoY to 22.7%. There would be pressure on margin due to increase in competition and gold prices.

Kotak Equities

We model (1) 12% YoY growth in standalone jewelry sales (excluding sale of gold bullion; versus 19%/23% growth in 4Q/3QFY24), partly impacted by a sudden rally in gold prices by 15% in the past six months, (2) 15% growth in watches division and (3) 11% growth in eyewear (versus weak 2HFY24).

We expect standalone jewelry EBIT margin of 10.8% (down 20 YoY). We note that jewelry EBIT margin in the June quarter is usually 100-125 bps lower than full-year margins, owing to lower studded sales (we expect studded share in 1QFY25 to drop by 100 bps yoy to 25%).

In addition to this, higher competitive intensity resulting in rationalization of gold rate mark-up, higher investments in gold exchange programs and gold rate protection offers (necessitated by sharp rise in gold price) are offsetting the gains from operating leverage and a reduction in franchisee commissions.

Titan FY2025E consolidated jewelry EBIT margin guidance band is 11.5-12.5%. We estimate a 9%/8% EBIT margin for watches/eyewear in 1QFY25.

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