Paytm Q2 Preview: Revenue to grow up to 40% YoY on healthy loan disbursals; losses to shrink

On the back of steady loan disbursals and new device additions, fintech major Paytm is expected to clock healthy revenue growth both on a sequential and year-on-year basis.

Revenue from operations during the second quarter is expected to grow anywhere between 30-40% YoY. Meanwhile, losses are expected to shrink to Rs 270 crore.

Adjusted EBITDA (before ESOPs) for the quarter is likely to improve further sequentially to Rs 175 crore, compared with Rs 84 crore in the preceding June quarter.


Paytm narrowed its losses to Rs 357 crore in the quarter ended June. Revenue from operations during the quarter rose 39% to Rs 2,342 crore.

Here's what analysts expect from Paytm's Q2

Motilal Oswal
We estimate gross merchandise value (GMV) to grow 46% YoY to Rs 4.7 lakh crore, while the value of loans disbursed is likely to grow 135% YoY to Rs 17,200 crore.

We expect revenue from operations to grow 36% YoY to Rs 2,600 crore, while contribution profit is estimated to grow 72% YoY to Rs 1,450 crore (contribution margin of 56%). We estimate EBITDA before ESOP costs to come in at Rs 175 crore.

Goldman Sachs
We forecast 30% YoY revenue growth for Paytm in the second quarter, at the higher end of our India internet coverage, with a 6.3% EBITDA margin.

We forecast Paytm’s GMV growth to accelerate 40% YoY to Rs 4.5 lakh crore in the reporting period, implying a 24% share of India’s digital payments.

We forecast loan disbursals to grow 13% QoQ (129% YoY) in the second quarter to Rs 16,700 crore.

YES Securities
We arrive at an overall growth in Revenue from operations of 14% QoQ. We forecast payment processing charges (PPC) as a proportion of payment revenue to be at 54.5%, a metric that was 54.9% in 1QFY24.

We arrive at a total expenses (ex PPC) growth of 7% QoQ, compared with a growth of 11% in 1QFY24, resulting in an EBITDA margin (ex Other Income and after ESOP cost) of -6.6%, an improvement of 591 bps QoQ.

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