ITC Q2 results preview: PAT may grow up to 11% YoY, revenue seen 15% higher; 6 things to track

FMCG major ITC will announce its Q2 earnings on Thursday (October 30) where the company is expected to post a net profit growth in a wide range of 2%-11% on a year-on-year basis, according to estimates by five brokerages. Likewise, topline estimates remain in a varied range from flat to 15% over the year ago period.

The net profit in the July-September quarter could be in the range of Rs 5,085 crore to Rs 5,517 crore, the estimates revealed. Most analysts attribute the profit growth to steady cigarette volumes and improved mix, partly offset by muted performance in agri and FMCG segments.

The estimates given by Nomura, Axis Securities, YES Securities, ElaraCapital and Antique Stock Broking have been taken into account.


Margins are expected to hold firm around 32–33%.

Investors should watch out for cigarette volume and pricing trends and the impact of GST reforms on the company and industry, overall.

The company will announce its Q2FY26 results later this week. Here’s what key brokerages expect:

1. PAT

– Nomura: Rs 5,085 crore, up 2.2% YoY and up 3.5% QoQ

– Axis Securities: Rs 5,148 crore, up 3.5% YoY and 4.8% QoQ

– Elara Capital: Rs 5,114 crore, up 2.8% YoY and up 4.1% QoQ

– Antique: Rs 5,154 crore, up 3.6% YoY and up 4.9% QoQ

– YES Securities is more optimistic, pegging PAT at Rs 5,517 crore, up 10.9% YoY and up 12.3% QoQ.

2. Revenue

– Nomura: Rs 18,906 crore, up 1.4% YoY and down 4.3% QoQ

– Axis Securities: Rs 19,546 crore, up 5.8% YOY and down 0.3% QoQ

– Elara Capital: Rs 19,760 crore, up 6% YoY and flat QoQ

– Antique: 18,677 crore, flat YoY and down 5.4% QoQ

– YES Securities: Rs 21,475 crore, up 15.2% YoY and up 8.7% QoQ

Revenue is likely supported by 6% cigarette growth, 5% FMCG growth, and 10% rise in Agri business, as per Axis Securities. The paper segment, however, could remain subdued due to weaker global demand and cheaper Chinese imports.

3. EBITDA

Operating profit measured as Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortisation (EBITDA) is expected to rise in low single digits for most brokerages.

– YES Securities: Rs 6,909 crore, down 66% YoY and up 47% QoQ

– Nomura: Rs 6,227 crore, up 1.7% YoY and down 0.6% QoQ

– Axis Securities: Rs 6,422 crore, up 4.9% YoY and up 2.6% QoQ

– Elara Capital: Rs 6,350 crore, up 3.7% YoY and up 1.4% QoQ

– Antique: Rs 6,248, up 2% YoY and down 0.2% QoQ

4. EBITDA margin

– Nomura: 32.9%, up 10 bps YoY and up 123 bps QoQ

– Axis Securities: 32.9%, down 29 bps YoY and up 91 bps QoQ

– YES Securities expects gross margin and EBITDA margin to decline by

110 bps and 70 bps YoY to 50.5% and 32.2%, respectively.

5. Volume growth

Nomura expects 6% cigarette volume growth in Q2FY26 versus 3.3% a year ago, reflecting resilient consumption trends and effective pricing strategy.

Meanwhile, Axis Securities’ estimates 6% revenue growth with agri taking the lead with 10% growth. The cigarette business could grow at 7% YoY (6% volume) followed by FMCG at 5% YoY whereas papers continued to remain weak, likely posting a 4% YoY increase due to weak demand conditions because of cheap Chinese supplies.

6. Key monitorables

The Street will keep an eye on cigarette volume and pricing trends amid a stable taxation environment. It will also watch out for the FMCG growth trajectory and impact of GST transition on profitability.

Agri business outlook, especially on leaf tobacco and export trends could be a key monitorable.

Paperboard pricing and demand recovery post weak quarters and rural versus urban demand divergence are other key areas to watch out for.

(Disclaimer: The recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times.)