HDFC Life Q1 preview: PAT may rise 16% YoY; double-digit APE growth seen

HDFC Life Insurance is expected to report a stable performance for the first quarter of FY26, with most brokerages forecasting double-digit growth in Annual Premium Equivalent (APE) and a steady expansion in profitability metrics. However, volatility in the business mix and moderating Value of New Business (VNB) margins are likely to be key monitorables.

The company is expected to report a profit after tax (PAT) of Rs 5,550 crore, marking a 16% year-on-year increase, while EBITDA is estimated at Rs 5,606 crore, up 13% YoY, reflecting solid operational performance.

Analysts expect APE growth to be around 15–16% YoY, aided by resilient individual APE and a recovery in the group business segment. Kotak expects a 16% YoY rise in APE, in line with the moderate trends observed in April–May.


Despite possible margin pressure, VNB is expected to grow ~17% YoY, supported by volume growth. Phillip Capital anticipates a modest improvement in VNB margins, citing a lower share of ULIPs and a higher tilt towards group savings.

Here's what to expect from HDFC Life:

Kotak Equities

We expect HDFC Life to report 16% YoY APE growth in 1QFY26E on the back of moderate 14% APE growth reported in the first two months of the quarter Rebalancing of product mix will result in marginal 10 bps YoY compression in VNB margins to 25% in 1QFY26E.

Nuvama

Investors will watch out for product mix, margins, and any guidance on sales through bank & agency channels.

Phillip Capital

We expect APE to grow by 15% YoY supported by resilient individual APE growth and a pickup in group business. VNB to grow by 17% YoY driven by APE growth and modest increase in the VNB margin. We expect slight improvement in VNB margin reflecting a lower share of ULIP, which is partially offset by a higher share of group savings business.

We expect EV to grow by 4% sequentially, supported by RoEV of 14%. We pencil in only moderate economic variances. We expect a slight decline in RoEV YoY driven by lower operating variances.

Our unwinding rate remains broadly unchanged YoY. Sequential increase driven by positive capital markets and net inflows. An increase of 16% YoY supported by strong growth in back-book profits

YES Securities

We pencil in new business growth assumptions based on trends observed till May 2025, when HDFC Life had displayed NBP/APE de-growth of -20%/-35% for 2M1QFY26 (April and May 2025) over 2M4QFY25 (January and February 2025). We pencil in a VNB margin contraction of -100bps based on expected business mix changes.

Motilal

APE growth is expected to remain in double digits YoY. On a YoY basis, VNB margin is expected to improve with a shift towards traditional products and improving ULIP margins. Product mix is expected to be stable. The share of HDFC Bank in the distribution mix and the outlook ahead will be critical.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)