Bharti Airtel Q1 Results Preview: Brokerages see up to 198% YoY PAT growth on subscriber gains, stable ARPU. 6 things to watch out for

Telecom major Bharti Airtel will announce its Q1 earnings on Tuesday, August 5 where the company is expected to report a healthy set of numbers for the first quarter of FY26, with analysts expecting solid year-on-year growth in profits, revenues, and EBITDA.

Subscriber additions, especially in the 4G segment, moderate improvement in ARPU, and continued momentum in Africa operations are expected to be key drivers.

While PAT forecasts vary due to exceptional items in prior quarters, underlying operational metrics suggest a steady expansion in core performance. Analysts will watch closely for updates on 5G rollout, capex trends, and possible tariff hikes.

1. PAT

– PhillipCapital: Rs 8,539 crore, up 36% YoY and down 102% QoQ

– Nuvama: Core PAT at Rs 6,711 crore, up 129% YoY and up 28% QoQ

– MOFSL: Rs 6,100 crore, up 108.6% YoY

– Kotak Equities: Rs 6,461 crore, up 55.3% YoY and down 41.4% QoQ

– JM Financial: Rs 11,904 crore, up 198.2% YoY and up 9.3% QoQ

2. Revenue

– PhillipCapital: Rs 49,603 crore, up 23% YoY, up 4%

– Nuvama: Rs 49,615 crore, up 28% YoY, up 3% QoQ

– MOFSL: Rs 48,600 crore, up 26.2%

– Kotak Equities: Rs 38,506 crore, up 25.2% YoY and 0.7% QoQ

– JM Financial: Rs 49,584 crore, 27.6% YoY and 2.5% QOQ

Nuvama builds 2.6% QoQ growth in revenue with 4.3% QoQ growth for the India business and 2.7% QoQ increase (in INR terms) for the Africa business. India mobile services business to grow by 3.4% QoQ, driven by subscriber addition, it said.

MOFSL expects revenue to be driven by India wireless, homes, and Africa.

3. EBITDA

– PhillipCapital: Rs 29,353 crore, up 36% YoY and down 12%

– Nuvama: Rs 28,237 crore, up 41% YoY and up 3% QoQ

– MOFSL: Rs 27,300 crore, 38.8% YoY

– Kotak Equities: Rs 19,708 crore, 38.9% YoY and up 1.4% QoQ

– JM Financial: Rs 28,410 crore, 41.5% YoY and up 3.3% QoQ

EBITDA is expected to remain robust, led by gains in India wireless, broadband, and Africa segments. MOFSL warns that weak enterprise performance and absence of one-off reversals may cap upside. PhillipCapital's sequential drop may reflect base effect or elevated costs.

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4. EBITDA Margin

– PhillipCapital: 59.2%, up from 51.2% YoY but down from 56.4% QoQ

– Nuvama: 1.4% qoq

– Kotak Equities: 56.8%, up 559 bps YoY and 36 bps QoQ

Margins are expected to stay strong YoY, with minor QoQ expansion. Kotak highlights better subscriber mix and ARPU, while Nuvama expects stable margin trends amid moderate revenue growth.

5. ARPU (Average Revenue Per User)

– PhillipCapital: Rs 247.9 vs Rs 210 YoY and Rs 246.6 QoQ

– MOFSL: Rs 248, +1% QoQ

– Kotak Equities: Rs 250 versus Rs 245 in Q4FY25

Nuvama in its note said that ARPU growth is expected to remain moderate.

6. Subscriber Base

PhillipCapital has estimated subscribers at 362.4 million in Q1, which is a net addition of 0.8 million with 4G subscribers standing at 279.6 million, an uptick of 2.8 million in the quarter under review.

MOFSL sees 3.5 million wireless net additions and 5.5 million 4G net additions while Kotak Equities has pegged wireless net additions at 3.5 million.

Subscriber additions remain positive, though growth has moderated. Analysts note that 4G penetration continues to improve steadily, which supports ARPU and monetisation.
The key monitorables will be the company's progress on 5G adoption, capex trajectory, and future tariff hikes.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)