Bajaj Auto Q1 Preview: PAT may grow 19% YoY; EBITDA margins to expand up to 100 bps

Two-wheeler major Bajaj Auto is likely to report healthy growth in its core earnings for the first quarter ended June 2024, led by increase in volumes and average selling prices (ASPs).

The company, which will announce its quarterly earnings on July 16, reported 7% year-on-year growth in volumes during the June quarter.

Net profit for the period is seen increasing 17% year-on-year, according to an average estimate of three brokerages, while net sales may jump 14% year-on-year.


Analysts expect EBITDA margins to expand anywhere between 90-100 bps year-on-year due to richer product mix and operating leverage benefits.

In the preceding March quarter, net profit increased 35% year-on-year to Rs 1,432 crore, while revenue for the same period were up 35% to Rs 11,484 crore.

Here's what analysts expect from Bajaj Auto Q1:

Kotak Equities

Volumes increased by 7% year-on-year in 1QFY25 led by 10% year-on-year increase in domestic 2W driven by steady demand trends in 125 cc motorcycle segment, 9-10% year-on-year growth in 3W domestic and export segment and 6% year-on-year increase in export 2W segment as the demand trends in African and South Asian regions improved on a lower base. We expect revenues to increase by 14% year-on-year led by, 7% year-on-year increase in volumes and 7% increase in ASPs driven by higher mix of premium 2W motorcycles, electric 2W and 3W segments.

We expect EBITDA margin to improve by 10 bps on a quarter-on-quarter basis in 1QFY25 led by a richer product mix (higher mix of premium 2W), which will be partly offset by commodity headwinds and higher losses in EV segment due to reduction in FAME-II subsidy.

YES Securities

Overall volumes for the quarter grew 7.3% year-on-year at 1.1 million units, while realizations are expected to grow 6.9% year-on-year/flat quarter-on-quarter at Rs 107.3k/unit. This should result in revenue growth of 14.7% year-on-year/+2.9% quarter-on-quarter at Rs 11820 crore We expect EBITDA margins to expand 90 bp year-on-year/-20 bp quarter-on-quarter at 19.9% due to normalized operating leverage. Adj. PAT to grow 18.9% year-on-year (+2.2% quarter-on-quarter) at Rs 1980 crore.

Motilal Oswal

Both domestic/exports volumes grew 7% year-on-year. Bajaj continues to enjoy the benefit of a rich mix in domestic motorcycles, while export markets are seeing a gradual recovery.

Margin to expand 100 bp year-on-year led by lower input costs, improved mix and operating leverage benefits.

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