Risky bet, aggressively priced: Should you subscribe to Suryoday SFB IPO?

Analysts seem to have mixed views on the issue, with some pointing to the significant risks that it carries.

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The company seeks to raise Rs 581 crore. The primary purpose of the IPO is to meet RBI’s listing requirement within three years of starting banking operations.
NEW DELHI: The initial public offering (IPO) of Suryoday Small Finance Bank opened for bidding on Wednesday alongside the issue of Nazara Technologies. Analysts seem to have mixed views on the issue, with some pointing to the significant risks that it carries.

The company seeks to raise Rs 581 crore. The primary purpose of the IPO is to meet RBI’s listing requirement within three years of starting banking operations. Unfortunately, it’s being forced to launch its issue amid a pandemic that has left it with more than a few chinks in the armour.

Rajiv Mehta, Lead Analyst for Institutional Equities at Yes Securities, said he does not have a positive view on this IPO for various reasons. He said the company’s asset quality has been impacted severely by Covid-19 and the overall stress remains inadequately addressed. At the same time, its loan-assets diversification is not credible enough, he said.


According to Mehta, limited success on CASA mobilisation and reduction of funding costs, volatility in profits, asking valuation at par with stronger listed franchisees like Equitas SFB and Ujjivan SFB -- when all of these are adjusted for franchise and execution capabilities, the issue becomes unattractive.

The bank has already undertaken a pre-IPO placement of 5,208,226 shares, where have been issued at Rs 291.75 to SBI Life Insurance, Axis Flexi Cap Fund, Axis Equity Hybrid Fund and Kiran Vyapar to garner Rs 152 crore.

“At the upper of the price band at Rs 305, the issue is valued at 2.6 times pre-IPO placement and 2.2 times December 2020 P/ABV post-IPO, adjusted for pro-forma NNPAs and RSA. In comparison, larger listed SFBs like Ujjivan is valued at 2.6 times ABV and Equitas at 2.4 times,” said Anand Dama, analyst at EMkay Global, assigning a ‘sell’ rating.
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As benchmark indices remain volatile, analysts are recommending traders to be stock specific, avoid aggressive shorts and stay cautious. Besides the increasing Covid cases in certain parts of India, traders are also worried over the US 10-year yield which is firm at around 1.62%. All eyes are now glued on the outcome of the Federal Reserve meeting tonight.



Here is a handpicked collection of 10 stocks that analysts believe can deliver impressive returns in the next few weeks:

As benchmark indices remain volatile, analysts are recommending traders to be stock specific, avoid aggressive shorts and stay cautious. Besides the increasing Covid cases in certain parts of India, ..
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Nifty Bank index in the last four weeks has witnessed a shallow retracement of its strong post Budget rally of more than 25%, thus forming a higher base for the next leg of up move. Within the banking space, the analyst remains constructive on Kotak Mahindra Bank as it is seen taking multiple support at its 50-day EMA (Rs 1,893) and the rising demand line joining lows since September 2020. Among the oscillators, the daily MACD is seen sustaining above its nine-period average, thus validating a positive bias. The analyst expects the stock to retest its all-time high of Rs 2,050 in the coming weeks. Maintain a stop loss at Rs 1,840 on a closing basis.



(Analyst: Dharmesh Shah, Head - Technical, ICICI direct)

Nifty Bank index in the last four weeks has witnessed a shallow retracement of its strong post Budget rally of more than 25%, thus forming a higher base for the next leg of up move. Within the bankin..
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The share price of Titan remains in a structural up trend, forming higher peak and higher trough in the long term chart. Strong buying demand emerged at major breakout area of November 2020 and the 50% retracement of the previous up move (Rs 1,154-1,621), thus providing a fresh entry opportunity with a favourable risk reward set up. Currently, the stock has taken 10 weeks to retrace 50% of its previous up move of 9 weeks (Rs 1,154-Rs 1,621). Such slower pace of retracement indicates a robust price structure. The analyst expects the stock to head towards Rs 1,615 level in the coming weeks as it is the confluence of the previous all-time high of January 2021 and 123.6% external retracement of its immediate previous decline (Rs 1,588-Rs 1,396). Maintain a stop loss at Rs 1,418 on a closing basis



(Analyst: Dharmesh Shah, Head - Technical, ICICI direct)

The share price of Titan remains in a structural up trend, forming higher peak and higher trough in the long term chart. Strong buying demand emerged at major breakout area of November 2020 and the 5..
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The IT index is resuming its fresh up move after taking a breather in the last two months. Midcap IT stocks are witnessing strong momentum and continuing their primary up trend. The share price of L&T Infotech has generated a breakout above the bullish flag pattern, signaling the resumption of a primary up trend and offering fresh entry opportunity. The stock's 100-day EMA acted as a strong support point in the entire up move since May 2020. The counter has recently rebounded taking support at its 20-week EMA, highlighting a robust price structure. Based on the above technical observations, the analyst expects the stock to continue its current positive momentum and head towards Rs 4,435 levels as it the 138.2% extension of the previous week up move (Rs 3,570 to Rs 4,015). The analyst recommends keeping a stop loss at Rs 3,890 on a closing basis.



(Analyst: Dharmesh Shah, Head - Technical, ICICI direct)

The IT index is resuming its fresh up move after taking a breather in the last two months. Midcap IT stocks are witnessing strong momentum and continuing their primary up trend. The share price of L&..
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After moving into a sideways range over the last one month, the stock witnessed an up move on Tuesday and closed higher. This pattern indicate chances of a sharp upside breakout of the range of around Rs 525-550 levels. The weekly chart signals positive sequential movement like higher tops and bottoms. A further upside from here could form a new higher top of the sequence. Weekly 14-period RSI has turned up, which signals the strengthening of upside momentum in the stock. Buying can be initiated in KEI Industries Ltd at CMP (Rs 520.35), add more on dips down to Rs 500, according to the analyst who was a target of Rs 575 for the next 3-4 weeks. Place a stop loss at Rs 485.



(Analyst: Nagaraj Shetti, Technical Research Analyst, HDFC Securities)

After moving into a sideways range over the last one month, the stock witnessed an up move on Tuesday and closed higher. This pattern indicate chances of a sharp upside breakout of the range of aroun..
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The weekly timeframe chart of Jagran Prakashan signals a sustainable upside bounce this week. After the formation of an upside gap in the later part of Feb, the stock price has sustained higher as of now. The said opening upside gap on the weekly chart remains intact around Rs 49.60-52.05 levels, three weeks after its formation. Hence, this is a positive indication and that gap could be considered as a bullish breakaway gap (which are associated with crucial bottom reversals). The daily and weekly 14-period RSI shows positive indication. One may look to buy Jagran Prakashan at CMP (Rs 60.05), add more on dips down to Rs 57 and wait for an upside target of Rs 67 in the next 3-4 weeks. Place a stop loss at Rs 55.



(Analyst: Nagaraj Shetti, Technical Research Analyst, HDFC Securities)

The weekly timeframe chart of Jagran Prakashan signals a sustainable upside bounce this week. After the formation of an upside gap in the later part of Feb, the stock price has sustained higher as of..
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Inox leisure has been trading within the range of Rs 356-Rs 310 since January 2021. This sideways range is taking the shape of a descending triangle. Descending triangles are regarded as a continuation pattern and they have a high rate of success in a bullish market. The stock is also emerging out of a strong basing pattern formed between June 2020 to January 2021. Longer term moving averages show an up trend as 50-period moving average is above the 200-period moving average. Once the stock price breaks above the minor resistance level of Rs 337, expect a rally towards Rs 370 and above that to Rs 400. The analyst recommends buying and holding for at least 6-8 weeks and keep a stop loss at Rs 310.



(Analyst: Manish Shah, Trader, Researcher, Trading Coach. www.Niftytriggers.com)

Inox leisure has been trading within the range of Rs 356-Rs 310 since January 2021. This sideways range is taking the shape of a descending triangle. Descending triangles are regarded as a continuati..
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Defence stocks have been in the limelight since the last couple of weeks and HAL is a strong performer. The stock price is in a steady uptrend with a clear pattern of higher highs and higher lows. The price has corrected from its recent high at Rs 1,117 and has descended towards its previous swing high of Rs 1,009. If we join the lows from November 2020 to the low of December 2020, price touches this rising trendline. The 50-period moving average is placed at Rs 1,000 and this average is also offering support to the price. On Tuesday, the stock saw a long green candle which is a railroad track and suggests a change in sentiment. Price seems to have completed the entire decline from Rs 1,122 and it is now likely to continue its movement upwards. HAL is a first class stock with a brimming order book. Buy HAL for a rally to Rs 1,150 and above that to Rs 1,250 over the next 6-8 weeks. Keep a stop loss below Rs 900.



(Analyst: Manish Shah, Trader, Researcher, Trading Coach. www.Niftytriggers.com)

Defence stocks have been in the limelight since the last couple of weeks and HAL is a strong performer. The stock price is in a steady uptrend with a clear pattern of higher highs and higher lows. Th..
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The stock is trading above its 200-EMA, which indicates a positive outlook on the stock. Coforge is trending in an upward trending channel and is reversed from the support line of the channel. The analyst recommends a buy on the stock for a target of Rs 2,845 from a medium-term perspective. Keep a stop loss at Rs 2,480.



(Analyst: Ashis Biswas, CapitalVia Global Research Limited)

The stock is trading above its 200-EMA, which indicates a positive outlook on the stock. Coforge is trending in an upward trending channel and is reversed from the support line of the channel. The an..
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The stock is trading above its 200-day EMA, which indicates a positive outlook on the stock. Maruti is also trading in an upward trending channel and has even reversed from its 8 & 50-EMA support. The analyst recommends a buy on the stock for a target of Rs 8,480 in the medium-term. He suggests keeping a stop loss at Rs 7,169.70.



(Analyst: Ashis Biswas, CapitalVia Global Research Limited)

The stock is trading above its 200-day EMA, which indicates a positive outlook on the stock. Maruti is also trading in an upward trending channel and has even reversed from its 8 & 50-EMA support. Th..
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However, some still find it worth subscribing to for the long term. Their views are supported by the best-in-class capital adequacy ratio, which will be augmented more by the IPO proceeds.

“We feel the bank would continue to face challenges in the near term. However, its medium- to long-term outlook remains bright. Going ahead, the bank's focus remains on growing secured portfolios in non-MFI such as commercial vehicles and housing loans, also expanding distribution channels as well as increasing geographical presence will remain their top priorities. Investors can subscribe to the issue for the long term,” said Nirvi Ashar of Religare Broking.

Ajit Kumar Kabui of LKP Securities said factoring in the good return ratios, FY20 ROA of 11.3 per cent and ROE of 2.5 per cent, Suryoday Small Finance Bank is worth subscribing to.

The IPO is clashing with the issue of Nazara, which is expected to break all subscription records.
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It will be interesting to see how much appetite the Street will be left with for the Suryoday SFB issue. Given the current level of enthusiasm in the primary market, chances are the issue will be garner enough number of investors to help it sail through.
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