Rupee spins wheels in thin band, shorts await fresh entry points

The Indian rupee lumbered in a thin range on Thursday, with both positive and negative global cues having limited impact on the currency as sustained interventions by the Reserve Bank of India continued to anchor it.

The rupee closed at 95.7050 per dollar, up marginally ‌from its ⁠close ⁠at 95.7525 in the previous session.

While speculative positioning in the onshore market is ​constrained by the central bank's limits on net open positions, the bias ​is towards further depreciation, a trader at a Mumbai-based bank said.


"Those who want to enter longs (on USD/INR) are waiting for sizeable dips to initiate," the trader added.

Offshore market ⁠participants leaned bearish ‌as well, a trader at a London-based ​hedge fund ​said.

The bias held firm even as the dollar ⁠was broadly weaker, sparking gains for most Asian currencies. ​Brent crude oil futures, though, rose over 2% ​to $93.8.

U.S. President Donald Trump warned of economic consequences against any country that provided "any type of lifeline to Iran" as the United States looks to resolve a war it began alongside Israel nearly six months ago.

Elevated oil prices present a key macroeconomic risk ‌to India since it imports a large majority of its energy requirements.

Elevated oil prices for longer could likely push India's medium-term consumer inflation ⁠towards 5%, and there is a chance of it breaching 6% as well, which is the RBI's upper tolerance band, analysts at ANZ said in a note.

"We therefore continue to expect the first of two 25-basis-point rate hikes in December 2026. That said, the timing remains contingent on the evolution of energy markets and monsoon-related risks," the note added.