Rupee hits six-week high on offshore, exporter flows

The Indian rupee rallied to a six-week high on Thursday for a second consecutive day, after exporter flows and offshore dollar selling reversed the morning's losses sparked by a hawkish Federal Reserve outcome.

The rupee hit an intraday high of 94.2175 to the U.S. dollar, the highest since ‌May 7. ⁠It was ⁠last quoted at 94.2925, up 0.25% on the day.

"Exporters are doing the most ​damage (for dollar/rupee) today. Plus, there is overall dollar selling offshore which I suspect is ​the unwinding of long positions that were still on the books," a currency trader at a private sector bank said.


The currency had dropped ​to 94.70 at the open, pressured by ⁠a jump ‌in U.S. yields that was triggered by expectations that ​the Federal ​Reserve will raise rates at least once this ⁠year.

Nine of the 18 Fed policymakers pencilled in a ​rate hike, far more than analysts had anticipated, ​according to the Fed's policy statement. The odds of a hike as soon as next month rose to about 25%.

One policymaker projected three 25-basis-point hikes over the next six months, while five pencilled in two, underscoring the extent of the hawkish shift. No official had ‌projected a rate increase at the March meeting.

Markets are now pricing in 32 basis points of rate hikes this ​year and ​a cumulative 42 ⁠bps by this time next year, versus 19 bps and 33 bps before the release (of the statement), ING said in a note.

RUPEE RIDES OIL ​ROUT

A further decline in oil prices supported the rupee, a trend seen through most of this week.

Brent crude futures fell 2.5% in Asian trade to $77.58 per barrel, extending their slide after the U.S. and Iranian presidents signed an interim peace deal on Wednesday.