Rupee ends at 90.26, posts best single-day gain since 2018. What experts suggest post India-US trade deal?

The Indian rupee ended at 90.26 per dollar, up 1.36% on the day, to record its best single-day gain since December 2018. The surge across assets followed the announcement of a long-awaited India-US trade deal, unveiled by US President Donald Trump on social media after a call with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Trump said India had agreed to halt purchases of Russian oil and lower trade barriers on US exports, easing a major source of bilateral friction. The previous close was 91.51.

Indian equities and the rupee had been under sustained pressure since Washington imposed tariffs in late August, leaving them among the worst-performing emerging market assets in 2025. The period was marked by record foreign investor outflows, as elevated trade uncertainty weighed heavily on sentiment.

The trade breakthrough is now expected to remove a persistent overhang on Indian markets, with investors anticipating a revival in foreign risk appetite and a renewed pickup in capital flows into Indian assets.


Before the deal was announced overnight on Monday, the rupee was ‌caught in a ‌persistent trend of depreciation. The currency slumped by about 5% since the tariffs went into effect ‌in late August.

Where is the rupee headed?

Anindya Banerjee, Head of Currency and Commodity Research at Kotak Securities, said the Indian rupee has remained relatively weak compared with its Asian peers, as it has been used as a policy buffer during recent trade tensions with the US. With inflation largely contained, policymakers have been able to tolerate currency weakness without triggering meaningful imported inflation, leaving the rupee trading at a valuation discount driven more by risk perception than fundamentals.

He noted that the recent trade agreement and the reduction in tariffs to 18% create room for modest appreciation in the rupee, though the pace and extent of gains will be shaped by the RBI’s intervention thresholds, given the central bank’s focus on preserving export competitiveness.

Banerjee added that foreign inflows could improve at the margin, but a sharp turnaround appears unlikely as global investors remain selectively positioned, with capital still gravitating towards AI, quantum computing, memory and data-centre themes.

Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, said USD/INR is trading lower near the 90.20–91.20 zone after failing to sustain above 92.00. The pullback is corrective in nature, with the broader higher-high, higher-low structure still intact on higher timeframes. The 90.50–90.80 region is key near-term support; a break could open downside toward 90–89.80. A softer USD/INR is marginally capping MCX bullion upside, though the medium-term trend continues to remain supportive.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)