Rupee hits fresh all-time low at 71/dollar fearing EM contagion

Mumbai: The rout of the rupee showed no sign of slowing as the local unit slipped to 71 to the dollar, another all-time low, amid overall weakness in emerging market currencies triggered by developments in Argentina and Turkey.

In addition, higher crude oil prices sparked increased dollar demand from India’s refining companies.

The rupee fell 0.37% against the dollar on Friday, extending losses to 10% this year. It counts among the worst-performing emerging market currencies.

“Argentina crisis along with rising crude oil prices have weakened the emerging market sentiment,” said Bhaskar Panda, senior VP, Treasury Advisory Group, at HDFC Bank. “Also, countries with large current account deficits have been clubbed from a risk perspective. This sentiment has pushed the rupee down against the greenback. The trend might continue until EM sentiment improves.”

Crude oil prices have climbed almost 10% since mid-August, making imports costlier for India, which purchases over 75% of its requirements from overseas.

Currency routs in Argentina and Turkey are triggering fears of global contagion, with renewed worries over US-China.

The Argentine peso and Turkish lira have tumbled 52% and 42%, respectively, against the dollar this year. Indonesia’s rupiah hit its lowest level in two decades, signalling that the currency collapses are clouding the economic prospects of countries with higher trade deficits or excess of overseas spending over revenue.

“Some emerging market economies are showing signs of weakness, which is getting reflected in India,” said Kamal Mahajan, head of treasury and global markets at Bank of Baroda. “An element of fear is triggering panic among traders, leading to the rupee’s extended losses.”

Mahajan added that “this scene cannot sustain long.”

According to Mahajan, stock indices are not falling with the currency and so this does not reflect poor economic outlook.

Oil refining companies were seen buying dollars aggressively as they expect the rupee to slide to 73.

“Oil companies increased dollar buying with the rise in crude oil prices,” said Param Sharma, chief executive at NSP Forex, a Mumbai-based firm. “The rupee is likely to remain in a weak trajectory following the crisis in emerging markets. Traders are fearful that the rupee may even touch 73-74 in the coming weeks.”

Some one-off, hefty dollar purchases, too, pulled the rupee lower as Indian companies repaid overseas loans. A large state-owned bank is said to have bought about $200-250 million as a state-owned company paid its overseas borrowing.