Re in 45.30-45.49 range

The US dollar-rupee pair is expected to open flat to negative on Monday with support expected in the range of 45.10-45.13 spot. A close above 45.26 spot on the daily charts can open the upsides for 45.44-45.49 with a mild resistance at 45.37. With respect to dollar-rupee March futures contract on the exchange, 45.30-45.49 is seen as the likely trading range for the first-half of the week.

Due to the reduced risk appetite following the massive earthquake in Japan and the advance tax payments, the bias for the pair remains buy on dips. However, the upside also remains capped due to the expected dollar sales by exporters. The downside does not seem much below 44.80-44.90 spot on account of the dollar purchases expected by importers and oil marketing companies.

With fears that RBI may hike rates, the US dollar-rupee April futures bias remains slightly more bullish than the March futures tracking the forward premiums. The options open interest built up on NSE suggests the range of dollar-rupee for the month between 44.85/44.97 and 45.82/46.08 spot.

(The advisor is Director, Proprietary Jobbing & Research, Equities & Forex- HRIM Finance & Securities )