Lull before the storm: Rupee seen at 69.50 against US dollar

NEW DELHI: The rupee has seen a smart recovery of near 10 per cent after Raghuram Rajan took over as the Reserve Bank chief. The Indian Rupee has stabilised for now after an extremely volatile August which saw the Indian currency test new all-time lows and lose over 20 per cent against major global currencies.

This was categorically due to the growth initiatives the market was expecting from Raghuram, something on which the new man in largely disappointed.

Barring this, as far as the Indian currency is concerned, uncertainty looms over what decision the US Federal Reserve takes on its much vaunted quantitative easing programme in October or later in the year.
"Previously, we were forecasting a value of 62 for the rupee against the dollar by year-end, but now we have raised that to 69.50. We think that the policy moves by the RBI are credible for both inflation and the currency, but that is at the cost of growth. Growth will be slower than expected," Clive McDonnell, Head Equity Strategy, Standard Chartered, told ET Now.

The pressure on the rupee is likely to build up ahead of the Fed meet in October, when a decision on quantitative easing ( QE) is expected.

"We are going to see increased pressure on emerging market currencies, particularly Indonesian rupiah and the Indian rupee. That is likely to intensify ahead of FOMC meeting," said Eric Fishwick, CLSA.

But then there is more to add pressure on the Indian currency. "I would also emphasise that there is more ... I would expect pressure on the Indian rupee and the Indonesian rupiah as a result of stronger European growth," added Eric Fishwick.

What about stock markets?

"Regardless of whether there is tapering or not, what has happened globally is that the liquidity, inter-bank liquidity is drying up pretty quickly and that is the reason why the US bond yields are volatile now and therefore bank liquidity is drying up. Equity markets cannot be very buoyant under those conditions and it is happening in India as well," says market analyst Satish Ramanathan.

"I do not think we are in for a hard rally from here," he adds.

So, the euphoria about cheap valuations, etc, has died out?

"My interaction with investors at our conference reveals that the interest exists, but it is not that there is a kind of euphoria about the country, about the valuations, etc," says Mahesh Nandurkar, Executive Research, CLSA.

And why is so? "The reason is that most of the investors are a little worried about the direction of the rupee. While the currency has appreciated, it has been quite volatile and the markets have also been volatile. So, international investors are essentially looking for more stability in both the rupee and the market. It is the volatility which is really creating some issues for foreign investors about investing in India at this point in time," Mahesh Nandurkar adds.

The S&P BSE Sensex on Thursday was witnessing a rangebound session with positive bias as traders squared off open positions on the last day of September series. The trade is likely to remain choppy as the session progresses, say dealers.