Yen heads for biggest weekly drop since May despite Tokyo's support pledges
The Japanese yen is experiencing a dramatic drop, marking its most significant weekly decline since May. The currency has hit 40-year lows against the US dollar, compounded by Japan's ineffective measures to bolster its value. Additionally, surgin...
By Reuters |
The yen was on course for its steepest weekly decline since May on Friday, capping a turbulent stretch that has sent the currency to new 40-year lows versus the dollar despite Japan's pledges to stabilise the currency.
Verbal efforts to support the yen have had limited effect, and some analysts believe even intervention would, at best, only buy policymakers some extra time.
Unless the Bank of Japan raises rates more quickly, the structural forces weighing on the currency were likely to remain in place, they said.
The U.S. Treasury Department on Thursday joined calls for rate hikes by the BOJ, warning that excessive currency volatility was undesirable.
The yen's weakness left the U.S. dollar poised for a weekly gain of 0.89%, which would be the biggest rise since May.
"We expect the yen to weaken over the medium term. Intervention is fighting a fundamentals-driven move and will continue to buy time, not direction," said Christian Antunez, global fixed income and FX associate at Lazard Asset Management.
INFLATION CONCERNS REKINDLE DOLLAR
The dollar's strength has been another factor behind the yen's slide. Benign U.S. inflation data for June briefly supported hopes that price pressures would cool soon, but the escalating Middle East conflict has revived concerns about higher energy costs.
Oil prices topped $100 a barrel this week for the first time in nearly two months. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh has repeatedly insisted that the central bank is committed to bringing inflation down to its 2% target.
"The June inflation print was very positive. But we're still talking about just one month here," said Macrae Sykes, portfolio manager at Gabelli.
"Warsh is very focused on inflation. He's bringing a serious attitude to this."
The euro rose 0.05% to trade at $1.1382, a day after the European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged but kept the possibility of a September hike alive.
"Markets are still seeing the risk of second-round effects growing as oil prices remain elevated, and until we have better data on underlying price pressures, uncertainty will linger," wrote Michiel Tukker, senior UK and euro zone rates strategist at ING.
Traders are pricing in a 29.3% chance of a rate hike in September, according to data compiled by LSEG.
Sterling rose 0.08% to $1.3325, but was on track to end a three-week winning run. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the currency against a basket of six others, was last 0.07% lower at 101.38.
The Swiss franc was largely unchanged against the dollar, at 0.8167. The Swiss National Bank said on Friday it does not engage in manipulation of the currency, after the U.S. Treasury Department kept Switzerland on a list for enhanced monitoring of foreign exchange practices.
The dollar has gained more than 3% against the franc in 2026, but the Swiss currency is far from the weakest performer. The yen has weakened by nearly 5%, in line with losses in the Norwegian and Swedish crowns.
The 30-year Treasury yield held well above 5%, while 2-year yields were hovering at 4.3306%, their highest since February 2025.
Verbal efforts to support the yen have had limited effect, and some analysts believe even intervention would, at best, only buy policymakers some extra time.
Unless the Bank of Japan raises rates more quickly, the structural forces weighing on the currency were likely to remain in place, they said.
The U.S. Treasury Department on Thursday joined calls for rate hikes by the BOJ, warning that excessive currency volatility was undesirable.
The yen's weakness left the U.S. dollar poised for a weekly gain of 0.89%, which would be the biggest rise since May.
"We expect the yen to weaken over the medium term. Intervention is fighting a fundamentals-driven move and will continue to buy time, not direction," said Christian Antunez, global fixed income and FX associate at Lazard Asset Management.
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INFLATION CONCERNS REKINDLE DOLLAR
The dollar's strength has been another factor behind the yen's slide. Benign U.S. inflation data for June briefly supported hopes that price pressures would cool soon, but the escalating Middle East conflict has revived concerns about higher energy costs.
Oil prices topped $100 a barrel this week for the first time in nearly two months. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh has repeatedly insisted that the central bank is committed to bringing inflation down to its 2% target.
"The June inflation print was very positive. But we're still talking about just one month here," said Macrae Sykes, portfolio manager at Gabelli.
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"Warsh is very focused on inflation. He's bringing a serious attitude to this."
The euro rose 0.05% to trade at $1.1382, a day after the European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged but kept the possibility of a September hike alive.
ADVERTISEMENT
"Markets are still seeing the risk of second-round effects growing as oil prices remain elevated, and until we have better data on underlying price pressures, uncertainty will linger," wrote Michiel Tukker, senior UK and euro zone rates strategist at ING.
Traders are pricing in a 29.3% chance of a rate hike in September, according to data compiled by LSEG.
Sterling rose 0.08% to $1.3325, but was on track to end a three-week winning run. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the currency against a basket of six others, was last 0.07% lower at 101.38.
The Swiss franc was largely unchanged against the dollar, at 0.8167. The Swiss National Bank said on Friday it does not engage in manipulation of the currency, after the U.S. Treasury Department kept Switzerland on a list for enhanced monitoring of foreign exchange practices.
The dollar has gained more than 3% against the franc in 2026, but the Swiss currency is far from the weakest performer. The yen has weakened by nearly 5%, in line with losses in the Norwegian and Swedish crowns.
The 30-year Treasury yield held well above 5%, while 2-year yields were hovering at 4.3306%, their highest since February 2025.
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