Rupee retreats to near two-week low, closes at 95.43 vs USD as US-Iran standoff pushes oil higher

The Indian rupee slipped to its weakest level in nearly two weeks on Tuesday as oil prices jumped on fading hopes for a U.S.-Iran deal to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Likely dollar selling intervention by the Reserve Bank of India, though, helped limit the ‌currency's losses, ⁠traders said.

Wedged ⁠between the competing forces, the currency closed out the day's session at 95.4350 ​per dollar, down 0.15% from its previous close.


The worries also dented equities, with the ​Nifty 50 down 0.5% and the benchmark 10-year bond sliding, pushing its yield 3 basis points higher.

India is seen as particularly vulnerable to ructions in oil prices as it imports nearly ⁠90% of ‌its crude requirements. Brent crude oil futures were last up nearly 2.5% to $89.9 per barrel.

"The absence of large outflows ⁠or derivative maturities was helpful to the rupee on ​the day but if oil keeps rising, expect ​it hover around 95.80 soon, unless the RBI stands firmly in the way," a trader at a private bank said.

The central bank's frequent interventions over recent sessions have kept volatility expectations on the dollar-rupee pair in check, despite renewed worries about conflict in the Middle East.

The ‌dollar-rupee's 1-month implied volatility, a gauge of future expectations, fell to 4.6% on Tuesday, its lowest level since late ​June. Traders ​reckon this reflects ⁠market expectations that the central bank will not allow sharp moves.

In addition to developments in the Middle East, focus this week is on consumer inflation ​data for India and the U.S., both due on Wednesday.

"If Brent crude prices stabilise around $70-100 per barrel, it reduces the geopolitical tail risks around the U.S.-Iran conflict and keeps the FX market highly data-dependent," analysts at DBS said in a note.