Rupee gains sharply as oil slides, NDF dollar selling gathers pace

The Indian rupee turned sharply higher on Thursday afternoon, boosted by a slump in crude oil prices, with stop-losses on short rupee wagers and dollar sales in the non-deliverable forward market also lifting the currency, traders said.

Brent crude fell below $100 per barrel, down nearly 3% and reversing course after touching a peak of $102.5 on the ‌day, as ⁠the United ⁠States and Iran edge toward a temporary agreement to halt their war, sources and officials said.

The ​retreat in oil prices lifted Asian currencies broadly, including the rupee, which strengthened by as ​much as 0.5% before ending the session at 94.25, sharply stronger than its intra-day low of 94.9025.


The pullback in crude prices offers much-needed relief for India, ​the world's third-largest oil importer. Surging oil prices ⁠since the start ‌of the Middle East war had prompted economists to ​forecast a weaker ​rupee, revise inflation expectations higher and lower India's economic growth ⁠outlook.

Dollar-rupee forward premiums, the cost of hedging currency exposure, retreated, with the one-year forward implied yield slipping to a three-week low of 2.97%.

There was very heavy selling interest in the NDF market, which likely means short rupee wagers were unwound, a trader at a foreign bank said.

A second trader at a private lender added that a large Indian state-run bank and a U.K. headquartered bank were seen selling dollars heavily ‌in the local spot market.

The one-month dollar-rupee 25-delta risk reversal, a gauge of options market sentiment, signalled reduced appetite for bearish rupee ​wagers.

"The improvement ​in global investor risk ⁠sentiment and drop in energy prices is providing a tailwind for emerging market currency performance," analysts at MUFG said in a note.

"Latest developments add to investor confidence ​that the US and Iran continue to make progress to find a diplomatic solution," the note said.

Asian currencies were up between 0.2% and 0.6%, while the dollar index eased 0.2% to 97.87.

Global equities benefited from the improved risk mood, with MSCI's gauge of Asia pacific stocks gaining more than 2%.