Rupee bounce fizzles as RBI intervention thins, arbitrage flows pick up

The Indian rupee gave up early gains on Thursday as central bank intervention waned by midday, while dollar demand related to arbitrage trades between the non-deliverable forward and onshore market picked up.

The rupee rose to a peak of 94.9375 in early trading, ‌helped by ⁠dollar sales ⁠from state-run banks, before reversing course to turn flat. It was last at 95.2775.

Traders said state-run banks were seen offering dollars near 95 levels in early trading following the rupee's decline to a near three-week low on Wednesday. But as those offers faded, dollar bids gathered steam and stop-losses on long rupee wagers were triggered ⁠after it ‌breached 95, a trader at a Mumbai-based bank said.


"USD/INR remains prone to pushing higher in the absence of ⁠dollar supply from the central bank," the trader added.

A few state-run banks were also spotted buying dollars after the 95 level gave way, traders said.

Dollar demand related to arbitrage positions between the non-deliverable and deliverable forward markets also pressured the rupee on Thursday, a second trader at a Mumbai-based bank said.

WATCHING FED WAGERS

Most Asian currencies were rangebound on Thursday, ‌with investors eyeing U.S. Treasury yields, which have supported the dollar ahead of the crucial June non-farm payrolls report due later in the day.

The ⁠payrolls report is expected to be a key trigger for markets. A stronger-than-expected data could push Treasury yields higher, increasing pressure on the rupee and other Asian currencies.

Comments from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh reinforced the central bank's focus on containing inflation, and reinforced bets that the Fed is on its path to hike interest rates in 2026.