RBI intervention steadies rupee, governor's rate comment pulls down hedging costs

The Indian rupee pared early losses to trade little changed on Wednesday, supported by likely central bank intervention, while dollar-rupee forward premiums slumped after the country's central bank chief said talk of rate hikes is "premature."

The rupee was at 94.70 per dollar, barely changed from its close at 94.7350 ‌in the ⁠previous session.

The ⁠currency had slipped to 94.9150 in early trading before dollar sales from state-run banks, ​most likely on the RBI's behalf, helped pare losses, traders said.


Nearly concurrently, forward premiums slid, ​with the 1-year forward implied yield dipping as much as 12 basis points to 2.80%.

Traders said while reaction in the spot market was led ​by dollar sales, forwards retreated after Reserve Bank ⁠of India Governor ‌Sanjay Malhotra said that it was premature to ​talk about interest rate ​hikes.

"If we wanted to prepare the market for ⁠rate hikes, we would have changed stance from neutral to restrictive," Malhotra said in a TV interview, referring to the central bank's decision to keep rates and its stance unchanged at its last monetary policy review on June 5.

Growing expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve may raise interest rates later this year alongside Malhotra's comments prompted receiving interest on forwards, traders said.

Two traders also pointed to likely ‌buy/sell swaps conducted by state-run banks among the factors weighing on forward premiums.

Elsewhere in the region, Asian currencies were 0.1% ​to 0.6%weaker as ​the dollar index lingered ⁠near a one-year peak. Asian equities were mixed, with India's benchmark Nifty 50 index up 0.7%.

The advance in local stocks was led by the banking ​sector, which was helped along by the rate comments and the central bank's move to boost foreign inflows by allowing banks to lend to non-residents against FX deposits.

The latter also helped local government bonds advance, with the yield on the 10-year note down 2 bps at 6.81%.