Dollar-rupee in bearish zone

The dollar-rupee pair is expected to open slightly negative on Monday on account of the upside in the US markets over the weekend that have rallied due to positive comments by Bernanke though he did not mention anything about Fed plan on the additional monetary stimulus to accelerate economic growth in the US.

But the appreciation of the rupee will be limited on account of the Iran payments and the sentiment of the Indian markets. However, the Reliance-BP deal is expected to give support to the rupee.

Technically, the range for dollarrupee spot is between 45.66-45.77 and 46.30-46.50. A break below can retest the 45.00-45.20 area. The bias for the pair is slightly bearish. The last month has been quite bearish for the rupee, as it has depreciated by nearly 5%.

The options open interest builtup on NSE suggests the range of dollar-rupee for the current month between 44.55/45.30 and 46.24/46.43 spot.

Hitesh Daga, Director Proprietary Jobbing and research desk HRIM Finance