Vedanta may fall further; M&M, JK Paper are top buys for this week: Anand James

As the June derivatives series heads towards expiry, Geojit Investments' Chief Market Strategist Anand James expects the Nifty to remain stable with controlled moves rather than sharp volatility. He recommends buying Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) and JK Paper for the coming week, while cautioning traders against rushing to buy the recent dip in Vedanta as the stock could see further downside.


Edited excerpts from a chat:


Nifty continued to make steady upward moves for the 3rd consecutive week. Where do you think we are going to end the June series and how would you trade the monthly expiry?
Nifty has extended its gains for a third straight week, but the chart indicates momentum is flattening near the 24,200-24,300 zone, with price consolidating around the pivot band and oscillators cooling off after the recent upmove. This suggests a controlled, rather than impulsive, finish to the series.

Seasonality remains supportive as June has historically closed positive ~60% of the time, and with July showing a ~70% probability of gains and ~2% average returns, the broader trend bias stays constructive. Importantly, the June expiry dynamics are also favorable for stability. The front‑loaded unwind seen this month indicates that most position cleanup has already happened two days ahead of expiry, aligning with historical patterns. This reduces residual pressure implying that the last two days are more likely to see controlled, two‑sided moves, as seen in the previous expiries this year, rather than a sharp or forced directional move into expiry.

The pace of FII selling appears to be slowing down now amid easing crude oil prices. What are foreign investors doing on the derivative side? Any signs of short covering or new longs being made?
The long short ratio FII index futures has risen to 15.2, the highest since late April. This is thanks to a 9% rise in FII longs on Friday, and a week on week rise by 29%. Despite this rise, the reason why the long short ratio has not risen significantly enough is because the short position, which is more than 5 times that of longs, rose 3.3%. This suggests that while a tactical positioning has begun, smart continues to stick with the short side, and we are yet to see enough signs of a short covering led uptrend.

Metal stocks have been under pressure amid falling prices of various metals. What are the charts indicating it in terms of support and resistance levels?
Metal stocks have clearly slipped into a weak technical phase, with both index-level and stock-specific signals pointing to further downside risk. On the Nifty Metal index, the weekly chart has triggered a bearish MACD crossover, indicating loss of momentum after the recent upmove. Prices are also coming off a broadening wedge pattern, suggesting a potential move toward the lower boundary near 11,850, which coincides with a key weekly supertrend support.
On the upside, the immediate resistance is seen around 12,350-12,400, and any recovery is likely to face selling pressure near this zone, keeping the broader structure vulnerable unless reclaimed convincingly.

At the stock level, weakness is more pronounced as frontline names such as Nalco, Tata Steel, Hindustan Zinc, Jindal Steel, JSW Steel, and SAIL have already broken below critical support levels, indicating distribution and a continuation of the downtrend.

Derivative data further reinforces the bearish undertone, with nearly 80% of constituents witnessing long unwinding in the previous session and about 90% on a weekly basis, highlighting fading bullish interest and a potential to move towards 11,850 in the near term.

Vedanta shares fell 11% in the week amid promoter entity stake sale. Is this an opportunity for traders to buy the dip?
With Friday’s fall, Vedanta has pulled back a little over 25% from May’s peak. The stock is also at the lower bollinger band. Both shows how large the recent declines have been. However, neither points to a relief right away with oscillators continuing to point towards more downsides. Meanwhile, horizontal support at 269 raises hopes of a slow down in the selling spree, but favoured view expects this region to give away. We feel that 281 is the level to clear, to shrug off bearishness.

Kirloskar Oil Engines shares were among the top winners in the week after winning an order from data-centre infrastructure company HyperNext. What does the weekly chart look like?
Despite the sharp rise, we witnessed a doji with a long upper wick, as well as multiple days of close above the upper bollinger band during this phase. This warns us of a potential exhaustion in the uptrend, which is also indicated by oscillators’ turn lower. A gap filling move aiming 2397 may be expected towards this end.

Give us your top stock picks for the week.
JKPAPER (LTP: 342)
View: Buy
Target: 385
SL: 314
JK Paper is showing early signs of a bullish reversal after a healthy pullback within a broader uptrend. Price has retraced to the 61.8% Fibonacci level near 340, coinciding with the lower end of the recent 20‑day high–low band, indicating a strong demand zone. The consolidation around this level suggests selling pressure is getting absorbed.

Momentum indicators are stabilizing, and the structure hints at a potential base formation. A sustained move above short-term resistance can trigger upside momentum toward 385, aligning with prior supply zones. The risk-reward remains favorable with a defined stop-loss at 314, below key support.

Overall, the setup reflects a pullback within an uptrend rather than a trend reversal, making it a compelling candidate for a bounce if broader market conditions remain supportive.



M&M (LTP: 3182)
View: Buy
Target: 3300
SL: 3128
M&M is showing strong signs of a multi-timeframe bullish reversal, supported by improving momentum dynamics. On the daily chart, price has given a Supertrend breakout, indicating a shift in short-term trend, while the MACD histogram expanding with larger green bars reflects strengthening upside momentum.


On the higher timeframes, the setup gets more compelling. The weekly MACD has delivered a signal line crossover, suggesting a medium-term trend reversal is underway, often preceding sustained upmoves. Additionally, the monthly MACD histogram is showing signs of exhaustion, indicating that the broader corrective phase may be nearing completion.

This alignment across timeframes including short-term breakout, medium-term crossover, and long-term exhaustion builds a strong base for a potential upside continuation. If price sustains above current levels, expect a move towards 3300. All longs may be protected with stoploss placed below 3128.