US tariffs on metals and pharma: Which Indian stocks are safe and which aren't: Sudip Bandyopadhyay

Two of the most consequential policy risks facing Indian equity markets right now — US tariffs and the West Asia conflict — are converging on the metals and pharmaceutical sectors simultaneously. With investors scrambling to assess the damage, market expert Sudip Bandyopadhyay, in an interview with ET Now, has delivered a stock-by-stock verdict that separates the insulated from the exposed.

Metals: aluminium is the bigger story

The West Asia conflict has knocked out roughly 10% of global aluminium production, compounding a demand-supply gap that already existed before the war. Bandyopadhyay expects aluminium prices to remain elevated for the foreseeable future — which is broadly good news for Indian producers. Both Vedanta and NALCO, he says, are well-positioned to capitalise on this structural supply crunch and are unlikely to face material headwinds from the current tariff environment.

Hindalco is a different story. Its US-based subsidiary Novelis has faced a string of operational setbacks — including fire incidents — that create a distinct layer of risk unrelated to the macro tailwinds. Bandyopadhyay urges investors to analyse Hindalco separately given Novelis' own ongoing challenges.


"Vedanta is in a very good position. NALCO is in a very good position. Hindalco we will have to see — because of the Novelis involvement and Novelis' own challenges," says

Steel: India is mostly insulated — except Tata Steel

For Indian steel producers broadly, Bandyopadhyay sees limited direct impact from US tariff actions. The outlier is Tata Steel, which carries significant exposure through its European operations. Europe's defence production ramp-up had been generating fresh steel demand and fuelling hopes of a recovery in those facilities. Whether new US tariff measures disrupt that trajectory remains uncertain — but the overall situation, he notes, is "destabilising for the industry" even if it does not directly hurt domestic Indian producers.

Pharma: generics are safe — branded players face real risk

The proposed 100% US tariff on branded drugs sounds alarming, but Bandyopadhyay believes India's pharmaceutical industry — which is overwhelmingly built on generics and contract manufacturing — is structurally protected. His reasoning is pointed: if the US were to tariff Indian generic drugs, the cost of medicine in America would rise to politically untenable levels, generating a significant domestic backlash that the Trump administration would be unwilling to absorb.

The companies that do face genuine earnings risk are those with branded drug exposure in the US market. Sun Pharma is the most prominent name — it derives a meaningful share of revenue from US branded products, with manufacturing spread across Korea and the EU, both of which already face 15% tariffs. The situation remains fluid, and Bandyopadhyay notes that several large global pharma companies have already signed investment commitments with the US administration to sidestep tariffs. Sun's next move will be closely watched.

Glenmark, which had been advancing plans to launch branded products in the US, faces a different kind of disruption — its strategy may need to be restructured before it even gets off the ground.

Stock-by-stock verdict

The bottom line

India's metals and generic pharma sectors have more structural protection than the headlines suggest. The real risk is concentrated in a handful of names — Hindalco, Tata Steel, Sun Pharma, and Glenmark — each for distinct reasons. Investors should resist painting the entire sector with the same brush.