US push for agri exports driven by politics, surplus and competitiveness: Sunil Subramaniam

As the United States looks to push agricultural exports in its trade negotiations with key partners, including India and China, experts believe there’s more to the move than meets the eye. While agriculture contributes less than 1% to the US GDP and employs barely 2% of its population, Washington’s insistence on gaining greater market access for farm products continues to be a contentious issue.

Explaining the underlying reasons, Sunil Subramaniam, Managing Director of Sundaram Mutual Fund, said, “There are two reasons for that. First is that it is the only place where US production is competitive with the rest of the world and the reason for that is the high degree of mechanization in their agriculture.”

He pointed out that despite a small share of the workforce being involved in farming, the US benefits from “huge farms, advanced harvesters and mechanized production that allow it to produce corn and soya at profitable international prices.”


However, the ongoing US-China trade tensions have further complicated matters. Subramaniam noted, “The second reason why the pressure has suddenly built up is that China, as a counterattack to Trump’s tantrums, has drastically reduced their soya import from the US tremendously. So, the US is left with surplus soya now and so they are trying to find alternative markets.”

Turning to India’s perspective, he emphasized the challenges related to genetically modified crops. “The other challenge, of course, as far as India is concerned, is the genetic modification that the US rampantly allows. Indian agriculture has been protected from GM, and Europe, which is a big market for us, has very strict rules on genetic modification,” he said.
He warned that allowing GM crops into India could “severely affect our exports to Europe.”

Subramaniam added that while non-GM corn could be used domestically for ethanol production, political sensitivities remain high. “The farmer lobby, as you know, is very strong. Any farm reforms have always been stymied by massive protests. So, it is a very delicate line that the government has to walk,” he explained.

When asked if political pressure in the US was also driving this push, Subramaniam didn’t hold back. “That is the third reason,” he said, referring to the strong political influence of American farmers. “The agriculture lobby, the rich farmers, are huge financiers of Mr. Trump. So yes, he needs to take care of them.”

He added, “There are primary elections coming up, which the Republican party needs to win, so that is undoubtedly also a factor at play. China has twisted America by reducing their soybean imports, and that’s probably what is making Trump talk to China.”

In summary, Subramaniam outlined three key factors behind the US pressure to boost agri exports — competitive production due to mechanization, surplus stocks following China’s import cuts, and strong political funding from the farm lobby.

As trade negotiations continue, the intersection of economics, geopolitics, and domestic politics is once again shaping global agricultural policy — and India finds itself carefully balancing between protecting its farmers and managing diplomatic equations.