Senco Gold targets 20–25% revenue growth in FY27 but cautions PAT margins will normalise to 4–4.5%

Senco Gold's FY26 was an outlier, and its MD & CEO Suvankar Sen wants investors to know it. The company posted a PAT margin of 6.8% last year, buoyed by a sharp rally in gold prices and inventory gains from the government's import duty hike. But Sen is drawing a firm line under those numbers, guiding the street toward a more conservative 4–4.5% PAT margin as the structural baseline for FY27 and beyond.

"It is good to have a conservative approach of 4% to 4.5%. Yes, there will be certain years when gold prices will come up — but 6.8% is something we are happy to have, not something to guide on" says Sen.

Slowdown seen in last 7-10 days

On the demand side, April and May YTD revenue is running 30–40% higher year-on-year in value terms, propelled by a strong Akshaya Tritiya and a busy summer wedding season. However, Sen flagged a visible slowdown in the last 7–10 days, a combination of the Adhik Mass inauspicious period, the recent gold import duty hike, and some consumer hesitancy as buyers wait for prices to soften further. He expects momentum to return in June–July when the next wedding season kicks in.


A key pillar of Senco's margin strategy is growing studded and diamond jewellery sales, currently at 10–11% of revenue, toward a medium-term target of 14–15%. Sen acknowledged the company has been stuck in the 10–11% band for years, partly because surging gold prices made plain gold jewellery more attractive to buyers. In absolute terms, however, diamond jewellery sales have doubled over four years to around ₹830 crore, growing 20–25% annually. The shift toward 9-karat and 14-karat options is helping bring diamond jewellery within reach of more price-sensitive consumers.

On the ₹5,500 crore inventory, a figure that looks daunting on paper, Sen was characteristically measured. With 50–60% of forward sales hedged (covering roughly five to six months of inventory), the company is protected against near-term gold price volatility. If prices fall further and the downward trend firms up, hedging can be scaled to 75–80%. Crucially, Sen noted that the vast majority of inventory risk is the gold itself, which is liquid and can be remelted and redesigned into faster-moving products. Only the 5–6% manufacturing cost embedded in unsold pieces is truly at risk.

Not paying off debt, capital better deployed in growth

On debt, Sen pushed back on the idea of paying it down. With a blended borrowing cost of 6–7% and store expansion requiring significant upfront inventory investment, anywhere from ₹10–12 crore for a small store to ₹50–60 crore for a large one, he argues capital is better deployed in growth. Senco expanded from 175 to over 200 stores in FY26, beating its own guidance of 20 new stores per year, and plans to maintain that pace.

Geographically, the focus remains firmly on eastern India, the brand's home turf, with a push into northern and central India where cultural affinity is strong and diamond jewellery adoption is higher. The south, despite its scale, remains a cautious longer-term consideration given intense competition and structurally lower margins in that market.

Key takeaways

• FY27 revenue growth guided at 20–25%; PAT margins expected to normalise to 4–4.5% from FY26's elevated 6.8%
• Near-term demand dip due to Adhik Mass and duty hike; recovery expected from June–July wedding season
• Inventory of ~₹5,500 crore is 50–60% hedged; can scale to 75–80% if gold enters a sustained downtrend
• Diamond jewellery (currently 10–11% of revenue) targeted to reach 14–15% in two to three years
• 20+ new stores planned annually; east India remains core, north and central India next in focus
• South India expansion remains on the back burner due to competitive intensity and lower margin profile