Nifty no longer range-bound? Vinay Rajani sees upside break with 2 high-conviction trades

After a month of choppy indecision, Vinay Rajani of HDFC Securities says derivative signals and FII positioning point to a Nifty breakout — and names Fortis Healthcare and TVS Motor as his top bets.

February has been a grind. The Nifty 50 has spent the entire month in a stubborn sideways channel — surging toward resistance, retreating to support, and offering traders little more than whipsaws in between. But Vinay Rajani, AVP and Senior Technical & Derivative Analyst at HDFC Securities, believes the waiting game is nearly over — and the eventual resolution is likely to be on the upside.

A month of frustration, a signal of change

With Nifty oscillating between 25,248 on the downside — anchored by the critical 200-day exponential moving average — and 25,900 on the upside, the index has offered no decisive directional cue for weeks. Rajani characterises this as a classic demand-supply standoff: sellers emerge at the top, buyers absorb at the bottom, and the trend goes nowhere.

"It is a tough and challenging period for traders. But looking at derivative rollover data, the market is likely to break out on the upside — there has been good short covering possible from the FII side."

-— Vinay Rajani, AVP, HDFC Securities

Short-term pressure remains — today's session saw PSU banks and power stocks face profit-booking — but Rajani views this as transient noise rather than a trend reversal. His core view is that dips should be bought, with 25,200 as the stop-loss level for traders holding long positions over the next two weeks. The setup, he argues, favours patience over panic.

Two stocks to watch

Beyond the index, Rajani highlights two sectors showing independent strength: healthcare and auto. He picks one name from each with specific entry, stop-loss, and target levels.

Fortis has emerged from a consolidation phase and is showing renewed technical momentum — Rajani sees the ₹950 level as the ideal entry point for a move toward ₹980. For TVS Motor, the conviction is even stronger: the stock is trading at all-time highs, the broader Nifty Auto Index has broken out from consolidation, and TVS is clearly the outperformer within the pack. A convincing session yesterday adds further confirmation to the trade.

The broader message from Rajani is one of selective confidence — the market may be directionless at the index level, but sector-specific and stock-specific opportunities are already forming for those watching the right signals.