Nifty headed to 29,000–30,000 by Aug-Sept 2026, crude crash to $64 will be the catalyst: Jai Bala

Despite geopolitical turbulence and sector-level divergence, a prominent chart analyst is holding firm on a bullish medium-term target for Indian equities - and his thesis rests heavily on where crude oil goes next.

Jai Bala, Chief Market Technician at Cashthechaos.com, told ET Now that he expects the Nifty 50 to reach 29,000 to 30,000 by August–September 2026, a view he says has remained unchanged since the second week of April 2025.

Crude oil: The key variable

Bala argues that WTI crude oil hit a significant top around $119 and has since entered a downtrend. He considers the recent secondary high near $110 to be an important peak, and expects prices to fall to around $64 within the next few months. In his framework, falling crude directly reduces inflation risk and geopolitical risk premiums priced into equities — a tailwind for Indian markets specifically.


"I anticipate crude to crash to about $64. Once that happens, the risk premium built around geopolitical uncertainty will deflate -and markets will head higher," says Bala.

The Iran conflict, he acknowledged, pushed the Nifty lower than his expected support of 23,500 — touching around 21,700 — but he says it has not altered the medium-term structure.

Sectors to watch

Capital Goods ▲
Realty ▲
IT (turnaround) ▲
Reliance ▲
FMCG ↓

Bala's strongest conviction lies in the BSE Capital Goods index, which he expects to approach 99,000.

Among power and defence stocks, he specifically names Bharat Forge and Crompton Greaves Power as standouts within this theme. He says he has been bullish on Bharat Forge since the middle of last year.

On the real estate sector, he believes a bottom is in and fresh record highs near September 2024 levels are possible. FMCG, by contrast, remains a sector he has been avoiding since 2024. He sees any rally in the Nifty FMCG index, up to around 58,000, as a counter-trend bounce rather than a structural recovery.

The IT question

Information technology has been the most visible laggard in both India and globally, with Bala pointing to the underperformance of the US software ETF IGV as evidence of a sector-wide trend. He says the Nifty IT index needs to break below its recent April low to complete its bottoming process, targeting a floor near 26,000 before a meaningful recovery can begin. Once that happens, he expects large-cap IT to signal the turn first, with mid-cap IT subsequently outperforming.

Banks and Reliance

On banking, Bala believes PSU banks have already done the heavy lifting and that private sector banks, ICICI Bank and Axis Bank in particular, are set to pick up the baton, even if they will not be the primary market leaders.

On Reliance Industries, he sees 1,700–1,750 as a target over a two-months-plus horizon, with the stock unlikely to fall below 1,300. Given its index weight, he views any upside in Reliance as a significant tailwind for the broader Nifty.