Mumbai realty market defies gravity, but early signs of shift emerge

Mumbai’s real estate market has once again surprised observers, clocking its strongest April performance in over a decade, even as property prices remain elevated and most other Indian cities show signs of cooling. Industry experts say the numbers reflect resilience—but caution that the momentum may not last indefinitely.

According to data discussed on ET Now, housing registrations surged to record levels last month, underlining sustained buyer interest in India’s financial capital.

Record Registrations Break Long-Term Trend

Real estate expert Gulam Zia from Knight Frank India highlighted that the initial figure of 13,800 registrations has already been surpassed.

“Yes, of course, the data you are referring to actually was that of 29th of April, a day more and we have recorded 14,285 transactions. So, it is not that much higher than the number you are talking about and hence, of course, the record is broken. More than 10 or 14 odd years of April that high a number we have not seen. The revenues have also, the stamp duty collections and revenues for the government has also shot up by four odd percent.”

The surge in registrations comes at a time when many markets across India are witnessing a slowdown. Yet Mumbai appears to be moving against the tide.

“So, net-net what we are looking at is that Mumbai real estate market is defying all the logics, everywhere else there has been some kind of a slowdown in every market, highest maybe in Delhi. Bengaluru and Hyderabad were the only two markets where there was a positive trend observed, but except for that every other city was going through a definite slowdown, but Mumbai is defying that trend.”

Pent-Up Demand Still Driving the Market
Zia attributes this strength partly to delayed buying decisions finally materializing, though he cautions that external risks have not yet fully played out.

“So, your question is why so? Well, yes, of course, the price is also so high but then the pent-up demand and the transaction numbers are continuing, because the transaction always has some kind of a lag if there is a huge impact on the market. So, if Middle Eastern difficulties or what we are hinting at, it is not yet shown on the Mumbai market yet. We will have to see how it shows in next couple of months. But for the moment Mumbai market is showing its resilience the way nobody else could have expected.”

Slowdown Signals Beginning to Surface
Despite the strong April data, there are early indications that the market may be approaching a turning point.

“Well, that is a very difficult question to ask because we are in that transitionary period where everybody believes that we have peaked out. Number of transactions we have seen in last couple of months have been actually truncating or slowing down in all over the country. Mumbai is the only one. But then even here the slowdown is kicking in.”

He added that ground-level feedback from developers and brokers already points to softening demand, even if official numbers haven’t yet reflected it.

“Whether it comes in next month or two, anybody's guess, but evidently on ground when we are talking to or interacting with the supply side stakeholders, the developers, brokers, etc, the slowdown is here. Maybe it will take a month or two to reflect into the stamp duty and registration numbers and that is exactly what to answer your question, we may have to wait, be a little patient, maybe a month or so we will see that the cycle is changing.”

Luxury Holds Strong, Mid-Segment Gains Traction
Within the market, trends are shifting. While ultra-luxury housing continues to perform strongly, the broader growth is increasingly being driven by mid-income segments.

“Well, to start with let me say that super luxury or upper end of the market has been doing extremely well. There is absolutely no slowdown over there. However, that is a very small market of the overall pie, the share of super luxury maybe not even 3–4% or maximum 5%.”

Interestingly, a divergence between transaction growth and stamp duty collections suggests a tilt toward relatively lower-priced homes.

“Now on the other side when we look at the data, while we are talking about the April numbers where the registration numbers, the transaction numbers have shot up by nine odd percentage, that 14,280 number that we looked at, on the other side the stamp duty collection from the government side has actually gone up by only 4%. What it means is that the kind of transactions are shifting more towards the mid to low end of the market.”

This shift could signal a broader change in developer strategy in the coming quarters.

“But when you look at the trend on the stamp duty collection numbers, it is showing that the upper end is slowing down whereas mid to lower end is coming up because if the numbers of transactions are shooting up but the collection of the stamp duty is not shooting up at the same pace means that the focus is shifting from top end to maybe mid end and gradually I am sure the lower end also will come back.”

Global Comparisons Offer Limited Insight
Zia also cautioned against drawing parallels between India and global real estate markets such as China or the Middle East.

“Look, China and India are very different markets. To give you a very topline number, at the peak of it at least about two-and-a-half-three odd years back China's overall GDP had almost 30% of share in real estate alone, in India the real estate share in the overall GDP of the country is merely 6% to 7%, that is a vast difference and hence to draw comparison saying that if something is going wrong in China it should have a rub off effect on India is absolutely unfounded.”

He pointed to structural differences and regulatory evolution in China as key reasons behind its current downturn.

“And then secondly, if you look at the last 40 odd years of privatisation in China in housing especially, we have seen from 1998, that is when the markets in China opened up, the markets actually peaked out for 20 years because there were no regulations there and somewhere in 2000, 2005 or so they realised that the market is going completely haywire and it can have a severe impact on the overall GDP of the country. Then, they started bringing down some…, that they clamped up the whole industry. So, no debts available and we have seen lot of big names including Evergrande, etc, falling apart and that is what was the scenario in China but in stark contrast in India we have not seen any such kind of a trend that we saw in China.”

On the Middle East, he urged patience before forming conclusions.

“Talking about Middle East, Middle East is a little too early, maybe last month, month-and-a-half we did see the word that you are using carnage, I may not fully agree but those are the trends that we are watching. But once everything settles down, it will be a different story altogether. So again, China, UAE, or Middle East, or India are starkly different markets. No point drawing comparison amongst them.”

Outlook: Resilient, But Not Immune
Mumbai’s property market may be holding strong for now, but the underlying signals suggest a gradual shift. While pent-up demand and buyer confidence have supported recent numbers, the coming months will likely determine whether this resilience can withstand broader economic and geopolitical pressures.