Market near oversold zone: Will Nifty rebound or slide another 400 points? Rohit Srivastava explains

Technical analyst Rohit Srivastava, Founder, Strike Money Analytics & Indiacharts, says the market is “extremely oversold” and Nifty is now sitting right on a critical support zone. Speaking to ET Now, Srivastava said a further fall is possible if the market closed below key thresholds on Wednesday.

Nifty, Bank Nifty at make-or-break levels

Srivastava says Nifty’s first major support lies at 25,900, while Bank Nifty’s key level is 59,100. “If the market closes below these, we may see another 300–400-point decline in Nifty,” he said. “But if these levels hold, today's low could mark a bottom and trigger a rebound.”

He added that proprietary indicators such as the daily swing index show “very strong oversold readings,” largely because of the continued selloff in the broader market despite just a few days of correction in the index.

Weak speed, but uptrend structure intact

While Nifty continues to form higher highs and higher lows — a classical uptrend signal — Srivastava notes that the lack of momentum is keeping sentiment cautious.

Market volatility too remains muted. “India VIX is low, but it is also not showing panic. Extreme fear would have taken it to 19–20,” he said.

He attributes the market hesitation to sectoral rotation:

A few months ago, mid- and smallcaps rallied while Nifty stagnated.

More recently, largecaps strengthened while midcaps corrected.

This rotation, he said, creates “a fractured feel,” but overall charts indicate a base formation rather than weakness.

What traders should watch next

Srivastava highlights two key breakpoints:

Upside trigger: A breakout above 26,300 on Nifty
Downside risk: A close below 25,900 for Nifty and 59,100 for Bank Nifty

A move above 26,300, he said, could open the door to a strong upside in the coming months.