India is bracing for an oil shock. Pashupati Advani on where smart money is hiding right now

Nobody has a clean answer right now. Not investors, not analysts, not central banks. And Pashupati Advani, veteran market watcher and Founder of Global Foray, is refreshingly blunt about it.

"Who the hell knows what is going to happen," he told ET Now — before laying out one of the sharpest reads on where Indian markets go from here.

The ripple effect is already here — and it's getting worse

The Hormuz Strait disruption isn't a distant geopolitical problem anymore. It's hitting Indian exporters in real time. Advani recounted a conversation with a fruit and flower exporter who has four consignments rotting in containers off the UAE coast — perishable goods sitting in the heat for weeks with no way to retrieve them.


"He is just writing it off — and he is not alone," Advani warned.

Gas shortages are already forcing restaurants to cut menu items. Households are being asked to use cylinders sparingly. And critically, Qatar's natural gas fields — assets worth an estimated $70–80 billion — have sustained damage that could take five to ten years to repair. The world is entering a structurally slower energy environment, and India is squarely in the blast radius.

The HDFC Bank shock: Teething trouble or something deeper?

Markets are also digesting a domestic crisis alongside the global one. HDFC Bank has shed 15–20% in a week, falling from the high 900s to below 800 — dragging the broader index with it given its outsized weight.

Advani traces the pain to the bank's merger with HDFC Limited. The synergies are real, he argues, but they will take time. Shutting overlapping branches is harder than it looks — the RBI doesn't permit easy branch closures. Combining staff who have worked across the street from each other for years is equally complex.

What's amplifying the selloff, however, is a corporate governance concern. The chairman's sudden departure — accompanied by a statement that left more questions than answers — has rattled institutional investors both domestically and internationally.

"Bad corporate governance — let us get out of here. That is the reality we are facing," Advani said plainly.

He stops short of calling it a full buying opportunity. Sub-780 looks tempting on paper, and every firm has a buy recommendation out. But until the outgoing chairman clarifies what triggered his exit, the stock remains in limbo. "If it is something small, that is one thing. If it is something big — like a cancer — then we are headed much lower."

Where to put your money when everything is uncertain

Despite the gloom, Advani identifies three pockets where conviction holds up.

Defence is the first and most obvious call. With a conflict playing out on India's doorstep, government and allied spending on defence hardware and infrastructure is non-negotiable. Defence stocks deserve a serious look.

Infrastructure and materials are the second bet. Cement and steel tied to domestic government projects continue to move forward regardless of what happens in the Gulf. These are insulated from the global energy shock in ways that export-linked industries simply aren't.

Food and FMCG round out the list. India needs to eat. Consumers will trade down — buying smaller packets, spending less — but the category itself doesn't disappear. Advani flags that demand patterns will shift toward value, making stock selection within FMCG critical.

The macro numbers that should worry every Indian investor

Two figures stand out from Advani's outlook. Oil at $118 two days ago — with some forecasters calling $180 — would be devastating for an import-dependent economy like India. At that level, the rupee, already at 93 to the dollar, starts looking like it is heading to 100. A weaker rupee inflates the import bill precisely when fiscal space is tightest.

Gold, traditionally a bellwether for Indian consumer confidence, is already off 10–12% from its highs. Consumption is slowing. Earnings downgrades, Advani believes, are coming.