Bitcoin down 23% in FY26, Ethereum hit $5K peak in August. Here is what analyst expect

Bitcoin slipped 23% in the financial year that ended on March 31, 2026 and Ethereum was at its all time high level of $5,000 in August. Bitcoin reached a new all-time high of $126,000 in October.

At the of starting of FY26, Bitcoin was trading at $82,551 whereas by the close of the financial year, it was trading at $66,694 mark.

Nischal Shetty, Founder, WazirX said that Bitcoin’s 2026 journey has been a test of resilience. BTC peaked near $126k in late 2025 and has declined ~23% in FY26, with $70k becoming a current support level. Macro tensions, geopolitical conflicts and equity sell-offs pushed BTC lower but it managed to push against all odds to reclaim $70k+ levels frequently.


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He further said that every time, instead of breaking, Bitcoin bent and stabilized, rising modestly while stocks bled which shows maturity.

SB Seker, Head of APAC, Binance said calendar year 2025 marked a clear inflection point for digital assets, where the conversation shifted from cyclical growth to structural relevance. The total market capitalization crossed the US$4 trillion mark during the year; however, what stood out more was the market’s ability to hold scale despite heightened macroeconomic volatility—signaling a deeper integration with global financial cycles.

Bitcoin continued to anchor this transition, maintaining dominance in the nearly 58–60% range alongside over US$21 billion in ETF inflows and growing corporate holdings which reflects a more durable shift towards long-term, institutional allocation, rather than short-term positioning, Seker further said.

In February 2026, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization declined by 22.6% to US$2.36T. The selloff was driven by Federal Reserve policy uncertainty, tariff-related transition pressures, and a broader deleveraging event in the markets.

On a month on month basis, the monthly crypto market capitalization stayed positive between April to July and in September whereas witnessed a decline in other months of FY26. At the start of FY26, the market capitalisation was $1.368 trillion whereas at the end was $1.33 trillion.

“2025 marked a pivotal year in cryptocurrency's journey toward mainstream adoption. The global crypto market capitalization breached the US$4T threshold for the first time, while Bitcoin (BTC) reached an all-time high of US$126,000,” according to a report by Binance.

Seker said notably, during recent geopolitical volatility, both Bitcoin and Ethereum demonstrated relative resilience compared to traditional risk assets, buoyed by sustained ETF inflows and institutional demand.

According to data by WazirX, Ethereum, USDT, Shiba Inu, XRP, Solana, Doge, Pepe are top traded across Indian exchanges. Source: CoinGecko trending data (India, Q1)

Shetty said that ETH's ATH near $5,000 in August 2025 and its significant drawdown in early 2026. ETF flows now drive price action. When institutions like Fidelity rebalance risk, cutting tech exposure amid the AI takeover narrative, digital assets feel the ripple. That’s simply consolidation. On-chain data shows no aggressive distribution, currently.

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What to expect in FY27?

Seker said that looking ahead, the trajectory is becoming more defined. The next phase of growth will be driven by regulatory clarity, stronger security frameworks, and real-world applications across payments, tokenisation, and digital infrastructure.

To this, Shetty said that near term, if support holds, institutional flows could return as it has been seen in ETF inflows lately and by the end of 2026, we could witness stablecoins becoming a pivotal part of global payments. as the GENIUS Act's implementation takes shape, institutional players like Visa, PayPal, and banks will fully integrate stablecoins.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)