Union Budget 2024: Commodity market's expectations & weekly outlook

The Union Budget is just around the corner and so are the expectations of different sectors. In an exclusive episode of ET Commodity Talk, we spoke to Naveen Mathur, Director - Commodities & Currencies at Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers, to know what is happening in the commodity market right now and the expectations of the market from this budget.

Excerpts:

Q. Gold and Silver settled lower last week. What were the reasons behind the drop?


Naveen Mathur: Precious metals were lower on Friday driven by end-of-week profit booking amid US PPI came in better than expectations and in contrast to lower CPI numbers. However, on a weekly basis, Gold still ended up by 0.8 % while silver ended down by 0.4 % on MCX on a weekly basis.

Q. Are there any data points to consider for this week? What can we expect from the commodity markets?

Naveen Mathur: Markets to look ahead for the China Plenum meeting scheduled till Wednesday while retail sales numbers and beige book survey outcome to determine the recent state of economic activity and provide further direction to precious metals prices.

Q. We are just a few days away from the budget. What is the commodity market expecting out of this budget?

Naveen Mathur: Commodity market participants would look for changes in import duty on precious metals in this budget. The market expects an import duty cut in gold from 15% to 10% and for silver import duty to be at par with Gold under the CEPA Agreement. With IIBX at GIFT city emerging as a gateway to import bullion, bullion players want all import and export of gold to happen through IIBX. Market participants also like the setting of a Jewellery Export Center at GIFT City for domestic smaller traders

Since the Gems and Jewellery market is regulated by SEBI, RBI, DGFT, Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Commerce, etc, market players want a single regulator in this market and also 100% bullion trade to be moved through Commodity Exchanges. Sovereign Gold Bond has become very popular in India and gaining a lot of attraction. However, the interest earned from Sovereign Gold Bonds is subject to taxation as per the regulations, if redeemed before eight years. Market participants want the interest income on SGB to be made tax-free, to attract more investors in this scheme.

WATCH THE FULL INTERVIEW
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/etmarkets-live/commodities:-budget-expectations-outlook/streamsrecorded/streamid-npnfca3g6k,expertid-111.cms

Q. What are the levels to watch out for next week?

Naveen: Sure, here are the levels:

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