Soybean likely to drop on Brazil output

SINGAPORE: Soybean futures may fall in Chicago on concern about competition for world markets after Brazil, the second-largest exporter of the oilseed, raised its outlook for production. Soybeans for July delivery dropped as much as 0.5% to $9.2625 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade and headed for a third decline in four days. The contract was up 0.1% at $9.3175 at 12:06 pm Paris time.

Farmers in Brazil, the biggest shipper after the US, are forecast to harvest 68.7 million metric tonnes of soybeans this year, the agriculture ministry’s crop-forecasting agency Conab said on Tuesday. That would be more than a May 6 estimate of 67.9 million tons and above last year’s output of 57.2 million tons.

“Soybean prices, to our mind, have a downward bias because of the supply response,” Luke Mathews, a strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA), said on Wednesday. Investors are awaiting the next US department of agriculture supply-and-demand outlook tomorrow, he said.

US soybean stocks may be 183.6 million bushels at the end of the year through August, below a previous USDA estimate of 190 million bushels because of higher demand, according to the average estimate of 28 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News.

Soybean output in China, the world’s biggest importer, may drop 3.3% to 14.5 million tonnes in the year from October 1, the China National Grain & Oils Information Center said on Wednesday.

Higher crude-oil prices and a weaker dollar may help boost the appeal of US crop supplies to importers and investors, CBA’s Mathews said.

The US Dollar Index, a six-currency gauge of the greenbacks value, declined for a second day, falling as much as 0.4 per cent. July-delivery crude advanced in New York.