Soaring mercury to take toll on wheat crop

NEW DELHI: Global climate change has turned on the heat for India. Alarm bells have started ringing within the government as temperatures rise across north India. If temperatures do not drop over the next couple of days, there is a likelihood that the wheat crop may be impacted in Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh. Both the ICAR and the ministry of agriculture are learnt to be closely watching the situation.

���There has been a continuous rise in night temperatures from January 26 onwards. Temperatures are at least 5oCelsius above normal. If this situation continues for the next two-three days, there could be a 4-5% effect on wheat yields. Basically, if temperatures don���t drop by Sunday, there is reason to worry,��� said a top ICAR official.

Not only is north India hot, it is also drier than before. For instance, Ludhiana has received only 6 mm rain this season compared to more than 20 mm last year. In Hissar, there has been no rainfall at all, compared with 13 mm last year.

The higher temperatures are already forcing the wheat crop to start ripening faster in some places in Punjab, Haryana and Madhya Pradesh. Higher than normal heat has been recorded by the met department in Varanasi, Lucknow, Allahabad, Jammu, Dehradun, Jaipur and Kota.

Last year, it was heat in February and March which led to the drop in yields and impacted India���s wheat output. If the same story is repeated this year, climate change is obviously closer home than we think.

This year is likely to be the warmest year on record globally, beating the current record set in 1998, say climate-change experts at Britain���s Met Office.
���Over the last four years, we have been seeing a rise in average temperature in each succeeding season. The year 2003 was warm, 2004 was warmer, and 2006 was the hottest yet.

Over time, it will push the wheat belt further up north and lead to changes in cropping patterns,��� he added.

Unfortunately, there is little the government can do to mitigate weather change. Though farmers in Punjab and Haryana can use sprinklers to cool down their fields, irrigation is simply not an option for the one-hectare farmers of UP, which is India���s biggest wheat producer.

Climate change is among the top global risks facing the world in 2007. That is changing harvest patterns across continents. In North America, analysts say temperatures in the Midwest corn belt have been much above normal with drier than average conditions.

Soil moisture levels are lower than average for the time of year. Severe early winter storms hit the Midwest at the end of November resulting in a state of emergency being declared in Missouri. Below seasonally

average temperatures arrived in the central US in the second week of December.In South America, by early December, heavy rains were expected to delay the harvesting of Brazil���s sugarcane crop. In Argentina the recent dry hot weather continued and the main grain-growing regions are still suffering from lower-than-normal rainfall.

In Asia, the Australian government has said the country is preparing for its worst drought for 1,000 years. More than 50% of the country���s agricultural areas have been drought-declared. The output of three main winter grains of wheat, barley and canola are expected to be down by 60% year-on-year, rice down by 80% and cotton lint down by more than 60%.

In Europe, milder-than-average conditions are forecast for much of western Europe with plentiful rainfall, and more temperatures above or near normal for the time of year for eastern Europe.