'The Big Short' fame Michael Burry bets on copper. Is red metal heading for a hot rally?

After copper prices skyrocketed to record-high levels this month before slipping slightly, popular American investor Michael Burry is now betting on the red metal and building positions, sparking hopes for a further rally.

Burry, who rose to fame after correctly predicting the 2008 housing financial crisis, disclosed his fresh positions in copper contracts while highlighting that he is ignoring the “woo-hoos” of the AI party. “The house party is packed, pushing AI higher today, but I am largely ignoring the ‘woo-hoos’. I am out in the backyard with my flashlight, seeking,” he wrote. “I think of copper, and how it gets prettier as it ages.”

The Big Short-fame acknowledged that part of copper’s rally reflected a temporary supply lull, and his longer-term thesis is backed by the sharp mismatch between copper’s demand and the time needed to develop new mines, Yahoo Finance reported. Burry in his post cited Apollo Chief Economist Torsten Slok while saying that major copper discoveries with deposits containing at least 500,000 tonnes have fallen from double-digit annual totals in the 1990s and 2000s to one or two in recent years, with none in 2025.


Burry's indirect AI bet is Ero Copper, a Brazil-focused copper and gold producer on which the American investor disclosed a long position. "All those back at the house are going to be needing a lot of copper," he wrote. Ero Copper shares rallied over 7% on Tuesday, following the ace investor’s disclosure.

Also read | Michael Burry pulls back on risk, says he’s happy to sit on cash. Is Big Short investor reversing his bearish AI bets?

Will copper shine brighter?

Copper prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) have jumped 18% so far this year, mostly due to large flows of metals to the US on speculation about tariffs on refined copper. The red metal hit a record peak of $14,875 on September 10, then tumbled after reports said that US officials were concerned that tariffs may raise costs for manufacturers.

"Copper is finding support from tightening physical market conditions in China," Reuters quoted Ewa Manthey, commodities strategist at ING. "Falling inventories, seasonal restocking demand and constrained spot availability are offsetting the stronger dollar and tariff uncertainty,” the analyst added.

Copper futures have now risen above $6.70 per pound, marking a sixth consecutive session of gains as supply concerns continued to support prices, Axis Securities said in its report, noting that Sprott Asset Management has said global mined copper output could decline this year for the first time since 2017.

Traders are now waiting on any announcement after US President Donald Trump’s much-awaited meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping this week for signals on trade ties and global economic outlook.

Also read | Without Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway is no longer an attractive investment: ‘Big Short’ fame Michael Burry

Michael Burry's 2008 prediction

Just before the 2008 financial collapse, people believed that the US housing market was secure and booming, and that home prices would not fall. Banks increasingly issued subprime loans; riskier mortgages were given to borrowers with weaker credit, under the assumption that rising prices would shield them from losses. Despite misplaced optimism, Burry warned that the market was on the brink of collapse, which most people did not believe.

After tirelessly studying mortgage securities, he concluded that subprime loans would collapse by 2007, taking down the broader economy with them. In 2005 and 2006, he warned his clients in letters that the meltdown was coming, but almost no one believed him.

Against all odds, Burry bought credit default swaps against subprime mortgage securities, effectively betting that the market would crash. As premiums mounted, investors grew furious and demanded withdrawals, forcing Burry to restrict fund redemptions to hold the positions.

The backlash was so intense that it nearly destroyed his firm, until the market finally collapsed exactly as he predicted. Burry made around $100 million personally and $725 million for investors when the housing market finally collapsed.

Burry’s popular bet against the housing market was depicted in the 2015 movie titled 'The Big Short', which starred Christian Bale, Ryan Gosling, Steve Carell and others.

Also read | Warren Buffett once called derivatives time bombs, then bet $40 billion on them. What this says about the legendary investor

Disclaimer: This article has been written by Debaroti Adhikary, who is not a SEBI-registered Research Analyst or an Investment Adviser. Debaroti Adhikary and his/her ‘relative(s)’ (as defined under Section 2(77) of the Companies Act, 2013) do not hold any financial interest in the companies mentioned in this article as of the date of publication. The views/recommendations mentioned in this article, wherever applicable, are those of the respective SEBI-registered Research Analyst/brokerage and have been reproduced/reported with due attribution. They should not be construed as the views or recommendations of The Economic Times Digital or the journalist. Readers are advised to consider the original research report and make their investment decisions based on their own assessment. Brokerage disclaimers here.