Silver cracks 17%, falls nearly Rs 70,000 in a single day! Time to book profit or stay invested?

After an extraordinary run that powered Silver March futures 74% higher in just the first month of 2026, the metal saw a sharp reversal on Thursday, tumbling as much as Rs 68,000 or 17% and slipping back below the Rs 4 lakh mark it had conquered only a session earlier. The steep pullback underscores how swiftly sentiment can shift after a near-vertical rally that pushed prices into uncharted territory.

Geopolitical tensions continue to anchor the broader uptrend in bullion, with a softer US dollar, growing expectations of interest rate cuts, and escalating global uncertainties driving investors toward safe-haven assets. Fresh trade threats from US President Donald Trump have only intensified the move. Yet, after a staggering 160% surge in 2025 followed by another 75% jump this year, markets are now grappling with a pressing question: Is there more firepower left?

“MCX Silver futures have surged above Rs 4,00,000, recently printing record highs near Rs 4,20,048. The rally has been sharp and extended, pushing momentum indicators into extreme overbought zones, which is leading to heat-led consolidation and rapid intraday pullbacks. However, the broader trend remains decisively bullish, with the steep rising channel intact and major EMAs providing strong dynamic support,” Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, said.


The Rs 3,55,000–Rs 3,60,000 zone remains a critical base. Immediate resistance is seen near Rs 4,15,000–Rs 4,20,000, with potential extension toward Rs 4,25,000 if momentum sustains. Dips continue to offer accumulation opportunities for positional participants, he added.

Motilal Oswal Financial Services painted a cautious view on the white metal, arguing that the sharp rally in silver has altered the near-term risk-reward equation for precious metals. The brokerage said gold now appears relatively better placed as macro uncertainty rises. While it maintained a positive stance on silver’s longer-term structural outlook, supported by industrial demand and supply constraints, Motilal Oswal warned that the near-term setup looks increasingly imbalanced after the rally.

Global silver exchange-traded funds have seen outflows of more than 3 million ounces since the start of 2026, even as prices remained elevated. In contrast, global gold ETFs have continued to attract steadier inflows, reflecting a rotation toward safer havens.

Pranav Mer, Vice President for Commodity and Currency Research at JM Financial Services, struck a more cautious note on silver. He said silver is difficult to predict at current levels and is not advising fresh additions. For investors already holding the metal, Mer recommended trailing profit stops below Rs 3,00,000 per kg. He acknowledged that momentum could still push prices toward Rs 4,20,000 to Rs 4,50,000, or $140 to $150 in dollar terms, but stressed that risks have risen.

On the contrary, Aamir Makda, Commodity and Currency Analyst at Choice Broking, believes a dual-metal strategy can still play a role in portfolios amid global uncertainty and sluggish equity returns. Makda said silver offers a “double edge” due to its role in solar energy, IT, and medical technology, with persistent supply deficits over the past five years likely to continue through 2026.

Ross Maxwell of VT Markets says silver’s surge captures both safe-haven demand and industrial consumption, though volatility remains elevated. While neither metal appears to be topping out, Maxwell expects prices to oscillate as investors book profits and react to macro developments.

“Forecasts suggest silver could continue its rally if supply tightness persists and geopolitical risks remain elevated, especially with silver now recognised as a strategic and industrial-critical metal. However, historically, silver is very volatile, a steep correction cannot be ruled out at any time,” Hareesh V, Head of Commodity Research at Geojit Investments Ltd said.

Also read: Explained: Why gold, silver ETFs crashed up to 14% and should you buy the dip?

However, he cautioned that several factors could pull prices lower. Technical indicators show the market is overbought, raising the likelihood of short‑term corrections. A stabilisation in geopolitics, a stronger U.S. dollar, reduced investor risk aversion, or an improvement in mine output could also ease upward pressure on prices."

Despite the correction, the metal remains on track to deliver gains of over 70% in January, marking its strongest-ever monthly performance and extending its winning streak to nine consecutive months.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)