Raining promises: Agri-commodity futures decline on hopes of a good kharif crop

Kolkata | New Delhi: Prices of agri commodities like soyabean, castor, coriander, turmeric, jeera and cotton have fallen in the past one week compared to the previous one with the approach of monsoon raising hope for a better crop this kharif.


However, analysts add that if El Nino condition develops during monsoon then there are chances of price volatility in coming months in agri commodities. The June to August months are critical for kharif production, as it accounts for 40 per cent of the country’s total farm output.

“With the weather office saying that the monsoon will pick up its progress by end of June and July, we are seeing a correction in chana, soyabean, cotton, jeera, turmeric and guar seed prices. We can expect prices to further fall with timely and equal distribution of the monsoon rains,” said Anuj Gupta, deputy VP- research, commodities, Angel Broking. Soyabean futures have dropped by 1.2 per cent in past one week and analysts said that it is heading for second consecutive weekly loss.

“While approaching monsoon is one of the major reasons for the price drop, other factors like the increase of crop area of soyabean has lend to the drop in prices. Moreover, weak soyameal exports in May has also put pressure on soyabean future prices,” said Ritesh Sahoo, an agri-commodity analyst.

Castor futures have dropped by 5.6 per cent in past one week and it is extending losses for the third consecutive week on expectation that the exports of castor derivatives – meal and oil – may slow down in coming months due to higher prices coupled with the expectation of improvement of production in the next season. Cotton futures too have come under pressure and have dropped by 0.9 per cent in last week as sowing is progressing in northern India. Analysts said that increasing imports and lower exports in last couple of months is also keeping the prices under control.

“International prices have come down by 15 per cent from 79 to 65 cents in the past one month due to USA and China trade war. In tandem, prices in the Indian market have also reduced marginally by 2 per cent. However, the delay of 10 to 15 day in monsoon may have an impact on the prices in the long term as sowing will be delayed in central and south India,” said Atul Ganatra, president, Cotton Association of India.