Oil Price Today (September 14): Crude oil jumps 3% to near $108/barrel as Middle East tensions escalate. What are analysts warning?

Oil prices extended sharp gains on Monday, with crude prices soaring 3% to near $108 per barrel as fresh escalations in the Middle East spooked investors about worsening wartime disruption to global energy supplies.

Saudi Arabia and Iranian attacks on ships in the ‌Gulf intensified supply ⁠concerns following the ⁠closure of a key Saudi oil pipeline. Saudi Arabian state media on Sunday released video footage of damage to homes and a mosque from what it claimed to be a Houthi attack on the country's southern Jazan province. The Houthis said they had also struck a Saudi military base in a neighbouring province.

An Iranian cargo vessel was struck on Sunday in the Strait of Hormuz, Iranian state media said. Iran then postponed a plan to brief its neighbouring countries on its efforts to manage shipping in the strait. There was no immediate response from the US military, which has struck Iranian-flagged vessels during its blockade of Iranian ports and faces a new threat from Iranian ballistic missiles launched at its warships.


Also read |Crude pool drying up as Middle East conflict drags on, refiners wary

Iran's government meanwhile continues to remain defiant. "Our people can't be bullied into submission. Iran won't surrender," President Masoud Pezeshkian said in a social media post. US President Donald Trump disagreed, saying that Iran "wants to make a deal so bad" that "they are calling constantly."

Crude oil price on September 14

Brent crude futures gained around 3% to trade near $108 per barrel. WTI Crude futures meanwhile also rose around 3% to trade near $103 per barrel. The sharp rise in oil prices today came on expected lines. Along with the escalating tensions, concerns about risks to supply from Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter, whose East-West oil pipeline was shut on Friday by a drone strike that originated in Iraq, further spooked investors.

The loss of the pipeline, which helped Saudi Arabia re-route its exports avoiding the Strait of Hormuz, threatens up to 4% of global oil supply. Oil surged 8% last week due to the disruptions, rising above $100 for the first time since July.

Also read | Saudi pipeline outage threatens loss of 4% of global oil supply

What lies ahead for oil prices?

Looking ahead, ⁠unless talks in Oman produce something operational, or the East-West pipeline is brought back online quickly, the risk is that crude oil continues to extend its gains toward the near $120 per barrel high of early March, Reuters quoted IG market analyst Tony Sycamore as saying.

Goldman Sachs has outlined a scenario in which oil prices could rise to as much as $120 a barrel if attacks on Middle Eastern vessels intensify. If exports return to normal, however, the bank expects oil prices to move back towards $80 a barrel. Struyven told Bloomberg that risks to shipping had become an important driver for oil prices. Daan Struyven, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs, said the attacks in recent days suggested that shipping disruptions could spread and become more severe.

JPMorgan estimates that every additional month of disruption could add around $7 to $8 a barrel to Brent prices. If the disruption lasts three months, the bank expects average monthly Brent prices to reach around $114 a barrel.

Citi has raised its average Brent crude price forecast for the third quarter to $86 a barrel from $80, citing a longer-than-expected timeline for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

(With inputs from agencies)

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