Oil Price Today (October 5): Crude oil dips $101 despite simmering Iran war tensions. Here’s why

Oil prices slipped on Monday as higher crude exports from the Middle East and plans by Group of Seven nations to release oil stocks added to supply, even as concerns remained over the risk of further damage to Gulf oil infrastructure amid the Iran war.

Crude oil price on October 5

Brent crude futures fell 70 cents, or 0.69%, to $101.60 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude was at $90.15 a barrel, down 90 cents, or 1.07%.

The release of stocks will come on top of rising Middle Eastern crude exports. According to a Reuters report, shipping data showed on Monday that exports climbed above pre-war levels on four of the seven days in the final week of September, despite attacks on vessels travelling through the Strait of Hormuz.


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The increase in available supply has helped keep prices under pressure, although the threat of further damage to energy infrastructure across the Gulf remains.

The Houthis said they had launched ballistic missiles and drones at Saudi Aramco sites in Riyadh and the Khurais area of Saudi Arabia, saying the attacks were in response to 50 Saudi-led air and missile strikes in Yemen over the previous 12 hours. Saudi Arabia has not confirmed the attacks.

Yemen's Saudi-backed, internationally recognised government said on Sunday that it was launching a major military campaign to retake all areas of the country controlled by the Iran-backed Houthis. Meanwhile, Aramco unexpectedly cut its November crude oil prices for Asia to six-year lows.

Where are prices headed?

"We simply don't know how to model the endgame," JPMorgan analysts said, pointing to the uncertainty over how the conflict could develop. When the war began, the bank had assumed there were economic thresholds that the US administration would not cross. Six months into the conflict, JPMorgan said several of those thresholds had been crossed, while there was still no clear exit strategy.

The threat of further supply disruptions has also raised the possibility of higher oil prices. Daan Struyven, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs, said recent attacks had demonstrated that disruptions to shipping could spread and become more severe.

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Goldman Sachs has outlined a scenario in which oil prices could climb as high as $120 a barrel if attacks on vessels in the Middle East intensify. If exports return to normal, the bank expects oil prices to move back towards $80 a barrel.

Struyven told Bloomberg that shipping risks had become a key driver of oil prices. Goldman Sachs sees "meaningful upside to crude oil prices" and also expects natural gas and refined product prices to rise. Struyven said supply shocks in gas and fuels are larger than those in the crude market.

Disclaimer: This article has been written by Veer Sharma, who is not a SEBI-registered Research Analyst or an Investment Adviser. Veer Sharma and his ‘relative(s)’ (as defined under Section 2(77) of the Companies Act, 2013) do not hold any financial interest in the companies mentioned in this article as of the date of publication. The views/recommendations mentioned in this article, wherever applicable, are those of the respective SEBI-registered Research Analyst/brokerage and have been reproduced/reported with due attribution. They should not be construed as the views or recommendations of The Economic Times Digital or the journalist. Readers are advised to consider the original research report and make their investment decisions based on their own assessment. Brokerage disclaimers here.