Oil Price Today (October 28): Crude oil at $116 as Saudi Arabian refinery comes under attack $120 in sight?

Oil prices rose on Wednesday after an attack on a Saudi Arabian refinery revived concerns over supply disruptions in the Middle East amid the conflict involving Iran and its proxies. Saudi Arabia is the world's biggest crude exporter.

Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis said on Tuesday they had struck Saudi Arabia's largest oil refinery with a missile, escalating attacks against the world's second-largest crude producer. Saudi authorities had not immediately confirmed the strike on the facility, which has a capacity of 550,000 barrels per day.

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Crude oil price on October 28

Brent crude futures climbed $1.60, or 1.50%, to $115.63 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude gained $1.22, or 1.22%, to $101.12. The gains followed a nearly $2 decline in oil prices on Tuesday, when talks in the Middle East helped ease concerns over supply disruptions.

OPEC+ oil producers are expected to maintain their December output targets at Sunday's meeting, three people familiar with the matter told Reuters, in line with market expectations. Production in most of the group's seven core members, namely Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman, remains below their respective output targets.

Attacks on Saudi Arabia continued over the weekend, with the Houthis claiming to have targeted an airport and oil facilities on Saturday. Saudi Arabia said on Sunday that it had intercepted additional missiles and drones. The world's largest oil exporter partially resumed operations at its main airport on Sunday following damage caused by an earlier wave of Houthi attacks, even as the group vowed to continue targeting the facility.

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Last week, Saudi Aramco ordered the evacuation of its headquarters in Dhahran, near the Gulf coast and Bahrain, Reuters reported. Fighting between Saudi Arabia and the Yemen-based Houthis has intensified.

The Houthis have also claimed attacks on the East-West oil pumping stations, although Saudi Arabia has not confirmed the strikes. Meanwhile, an oil spill from a tanker was detected off the coast of Umm Al Quwain in the United Arab Emirates, the country's Ministry of Climate Change and Environment said. The ministry did not disclose the cause of the spill, and authorities have yet to identify the vessel involved.

Clashes between the Houthis and a Saudi-led coalition supporting Yemen's internationally recognised government have continued since the Iran-aligned group advanced towards the Bab el-Mandeb Strait last month. The strait is a key shipping chokepoint at the entrance to the Red Sea.

Where are prices headed?

The uncertain course of the conflict continues to cloud the outlook for oil prices. JPMorgan analysts said it remained difficult to assess how the war would unfold. At the beginning of the conflict, the bank had expected the US administration to avoid crossing certain economic thresholds. Seven months later, many of those thresholds had been crossed, while a clear exit strategy remained elusive.

The risk of further supply disruptions has strengthened expectations of higher oil prices. Daan Struyven, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs, said recent attacks had underscored how shipping disruptions could spread and intensify.

Goldman Sachs has outlined a scenario in which oil prices could rise to $120 a barrel if attacks on vessels in the Middle East escalate. Conversely, prices could fall towards $80 a barrel if exports return to normal levels. Struyven said shipping risks had become a key driver of oil prices, adding that the bank saw significant upside potential for crude.

Goldman Sachs also expects natural gas and refined fuel prices to increase, with supply shocks having a greater impact on gas and refined products than on crude oil.

Meanwhile, Russian refiners are increasing diesel production in October after the government granted export quotas following the Kremlin's supply agreement with the US, according to two industry sources familiar with the matter.

Disclaimer: This article has been written by Veer Sharma, who is not a SEBI-registered Research Analyst or an Investment Adviser. Veer Sharma and his/her ‘relative(s)’ (as defined under Section 2(77) of the Companies Act, 2013) do not hold any financial interest in the companies mentioned in this article as of the date of publication. The views/recommendations mentioned in this article, wherever applicable, are those of the respective SEBI-registered Research Analyst/brokerage and have been reproduced/reported with due attribution. They should not be construed as the views or recommendations of The Economic Times Digital or the journalist. Readers are advised to consider the original research report and make their investment decisions based on their own assessment. Brokerage disclaimers here.