Oil Price Today (November 10): Crude oil falls below $92 as Trump says Iran war is effectively over. What lies ahead?

Oil prices extended losses on Tuesday, dropping around 6% in two days after US President Donald Trump told reporters that he believes the war in Iran "is effectively over."

Brent crude futures fell 81 cents, or 0.88%, to drop below $92 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures slipped 79 cents, or 0.91%, to $86 a barrel. Brent settled down 5.85% in the previous session after sliding to its lowest since August 31.


"Iran militarily is effectively over. We are just keeping it the status quo,” Trump said while making a surprise visit to the White House briefing room on Monday after meeting with Qatar's prime minister earlier in the day. The US President added that Iran has been "decapitated" but he is still looking to make sure there is a long-term solution to ensuring that Iran's nuclear programme is defanged. "The military action doesn't seem to be a very necessary thing, but we are locked and loaded, ready to go for any reason that changes," Trump said.

Also read | Iran war is effectively over, Trump says after meeting Qatar PM

This comes a day after Trump said that the US could avoid another round of military action against Iran, only if the latter agreed to what he described as a strong deal. "It depends on whether or not they sign a very strong agreement. The answer is, highly unlikely it's going to be necessary,” Trump told CNN during a phone interview. He repeated five times that renewed military intervention was unlikely if Iran made tangible progress in discussions over its nuclear programme and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Trump however warned that the US had identified 38 Iranian bridges that could be destroyed within an hour if further military action became necessary. "We have 38 bridges in our site that we can knock down in literally one hour. They will all be down," Trump told CNN.

What lies ahead for oil prices

Goldman Sachs recently raised its oil price forecasts, citing increasing risks to global supplies. The investment bank warned that Brent crude could climb to $140 per barrel in 2027 if oil production across the Gulf region remains significantly below its 2025 average.

The bank raised its December Brent crude forecast to $105 per barrel from $90 earlier. Its forecast for US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was also increased to $94 per barrel from $81.

In an upside scenario, Brent crude could reach $140 per barrel and average around $130 in 2027 if Gulf oil production remains 3.5 million barrels per day below its 2025 average, Reuters reported, citing Goldman Sachs' projections.

Goldman Sachs expects oil markets to incorporate a higher geopolitical risk premium, given the possibility of disruptions to Middle Eastern supplies, the historical duration of major supply shocks and the challenges involved in securing a lasting diplomatic breakthrough.

Also read | Oil falls as Trump downplays prospect of escalation with Iran

JPMorgan analysts also highlighted the uncertainty surrounding the conflict, saying it remained difficult to predict how the war would unfold. At the outset, the bank had expected the US administration to avoid crossing certain economic thresholds. However, seven months into the conflict, several of those thresholds have been breached, while a clear strategy to bring the war to an end has yet to emerge.

Disclaimer: This article has been written by Debaroti Adhikary, who is not a SEBI-registered Research Analyst or an Investment Adviser. Debaroti Adhikary and his/her ‘relative(s)’ (as defined under Section 2(77) of the Companies Act, 2013) do not hold any financial interest in the companies mentioned in this article as of the date of publication. The views/recommendations mentioned in this article, wherever applicable, are those of the respective SEBI-registered Research Analyst/brokerage and have been reproduced/reported with due attribution. They should not be construed as the views or recommendations of The Economic Times Digital or the journalist. Readers are advised to consider the original research report and make their investment decisions based on their own assessment. Brokerage disclaimers here.