Oil Price Today (March 26): Crude oil nears $105/bbl again as Iran rejects US proposal to end war. $150 in sight?

Oil prices edged higher on Thursday, recovering part of the previous session’s losses as markets reassessed the likelihood of de-escalation in the Middle East. Iran indicated it is still reviewing a U.S. proposal aimed at ending the conflict, which has disrupted global energy flows.

Even as it reviews the proposal, Iran has no plans to engage in talks to end the expanding conflict, its foreign minister said on Wednesday. Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump warned that Washington would intensify pressure if Tehran does not accept that it has been “defeated militarily,” according to White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt.

Crude oil price on March 26

Brent crude futures gained $2.64 to $104.90/barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures climbed 3% to $93.05/barrel. Both benchmarks had fallen more than 2% on Wednesday.


Iran said U.S. outreach appeared significant, keeping oil markets highly sensitive to further developments in negotiations and military actions.

The reported 15-point proposal from Trump, delivered via Pakistan, includes demands such as eliminating Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium, halting enrichment activities, restricting its ballistic missile programme and cutting funding to regional allies, according to three Israeli cabinet sources familiar with the plan.

The conflict has severely disrupted shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a key route that typically handles around one-fifth of global crude oil and liquefied natural gas supplies. The International Energy Agency has described the situation as the largest oil supply disruption on record.

Iran has outlined a set of conditions for ending the conflict, stating that the first requirement is a complete halt to attacks and assassinations. It has called for firm guarantees to prevent any recurrence of war, along with a clear mechanism to assess and ensure compensation for war-related damages. Tehran also emphasised that hostilities must end not only against Iran but also against resistance groups across the region.

Additionally, it has demanded recognition of its sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. Until these conditions are met, Iran said its defensive operations will continue.

Further tightening supply concerns, about 40% of Russia’s oil export capacity remains offline following Ukrainian drone strikes, a disputed pipeline attack and tanker seizures, based on Reuters calculations using market data.

What lies ahead?

International brokerage Macquarie has said that even if tensions ease in the near term, oil prices are likely to find support in the $85–$90 range, with a gradual move back toward $110 until normal flows through the Strait of Hormuz resume. The note added that if disruptions persist through April, Brent could still climb to $150 per barrel.

Looking ahead, crude prices could move higher from current levels. According to Kayanat Chainwala of Kotak Securities, oil may rise to $120 per barrel in the near term and potentially touch $150 if the conflict continues.

Nuvama Institutional Equities echoes the same view. The continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which handles around 20 million barrels per day, could push crude prices to the $110–150 per barrel range.

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