Oil Price Today (March 23): Crude oil steadies above $110 as Middle East tensions send mixed signals. What lies ahead?

Oil prices were largely steady on Monday as investors balanced escalating threats from the US and Iran to strike energy infrastructure against the prospect of additional supply, with millions of barrels of Iranian oil at sea expected to enter global markets after Washington eased sanctions.

Crude oil price on March 23

Brent crude slipped towards the $111 per barrel level, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US benchmark, declined to around $98 after once again testing the $100 mark. Brent, the global benchmark, has climbed more than 50% since the conflict began and is now in its fourth week, with little sign of de-escalation.


But investors remain on edge. Over the weekend, US President Donald Trump warned Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz “fully, without threat” within 48 hours, or face strikes on its power plants, starting with its largest facility. Prices remain highly volatile, also reflecting Trump’s shifting stance. Just before issuing the ultimatum, he had indicated that the US was considering winding down military operations against Iran.

Tehran responded by cautioning that any attack on its fuel infrastructure would trigger retaliation targeting energy, information technology and desalination assets linked to the US-Israel presence in the region.

Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf said on X that key infrastructure and energy facilities across the Middle East could be irreversibly damaged if Iranian power plants were targeted.

The conflict has already hit major energy installations in the Gulf and severely disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route that carries about 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas flows.

The conflict took a whole new turn after Iranian missile strikes targeted two towns in southern Israel near a nuclear facility, leaving several people injured. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said it has no information indicating any damage to the nuclear research facility located about 13 km, or eight miles, outside Dimona. Iranian state television had earlier said the strikes were carried out in response to an attack on Iran’s Natanz nuclear facility on the same day.

What’s next?

Crude oil remains at the center of market concerns. Although prices have seen some intraday moderation, Brent continues to trade at elevated levels near $110 per barrel, marking a sharp surge since the onset of the conflict. For an import-dependent economy like India, says Hariprasad K, SEBI-registered Research Analyst and Founder, Livelong Wealth.

Looking ahead, crude prices could move higher from current levels. According to Kayanat Chainwala of Kotak Securities, oil may rise to $120 per barrel in the near term and potentially touch $150 if the conflict continues beyond a month and geopolitical tensions remain elevate

Nuvama Institutional Equities echoes the same view. The continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which handles around 20 million barrels per day, could push crude prices to the $110–150 per barrel range over the next 4-8 weeks. While the release of strategic reserves may provide some near-term relief, it could also lead to a rebound in demand as inventories are restocked later.

Broader stress is likely to emerge beyond $125 per barrel. Oil marketing companies could see sharp earnings pressure, LPG subsidy burdens may rise significantly, and risks to LNG throughput could increase. In such a scenario, the likelihood of policy intervention also rises. Overall, the first $40 per barrel increase in crude can typically be managed through tax adjustments, but beyond that, the strain on the system becomes more visible, Elara said.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)