Oil Price Today (August 31): Crude oil reclaims $90 as fresh US attacks dim peace deal hopes. What are experts saying?

Oil prices rose by more than $2 a barrel on Monday after the United States struck an Iranian island in the Strait of Hormuz, prompting retaliation from Tehran as the Middle East conflict entered its sixth month.

U.S. forces on Sunday struck two launchers on Iran's Larak island in the Strait of Hormuz. It was the first known American strike on the Gulf nation since late July. Iran responded by attacking two U.S. air bases in Jordan, Iranian media reported on Monday, citing Iran's Revolutionary Guards.

Crude oil price on August 31

Brent crude futures gained $2.11, or 2.40%, to $90.20a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $85.30 a barrel, up $1.89, or 2.27%.


Also read: US strikes Iranian rocket launchers near Larak Island on Strait of Hormuz; Tehran vows retaliation

Efforts to bring the conflict to an end remain stalled, while mediators are working to restore traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Before the war began at the end of February, the waterway carried a fifth of the world's oil flows.

Rising oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz had helped contain concerns about supply disruptions, although a deal to fully reopen the route remained elusive. According to a report by Reuters, shipping data showed that the number of visible commodity vessels passing through the strait over the weekend fell to five a day, highlighting the caution among companies concerned about attacks on ships.

The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations said on Sunday that a tanker was hit by a projectile while travelling inbound through the strait on Saturday.

Goldman Sachs estimated on Thursday that total Gulf oil exports had recently recovered to 15 million to 16 million barrels per day. However, that remained 7 million to 8 million bpd below pre-war levels, although it was 5 million to 6 million bpd higher than the lowest level recorded in March.

Where is oil headed?

For crude markets, how long the disruption lasts will remain critical. JPMorgan estimates that each additional month of disruption could add around $7 to $8 a barrel to Brent prices. If the disruption continues for three months, the bank expects average monthly Brent prices to reach around $114 a barrel.

Goldman Sachs has separately warned that Brent could climb to $120 a barrel if shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, the world's most important oil transit route, persist. Its base case, however, assumes that tensions in the Middle East will eventually ease.

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The bank expects Brent to average $80 a barrel in the fourth quarter and $75 a barrel next year, while warning that the risks remain skewed to the upside if disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea continue for longer than anticipated.

Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, said crude prices would continue to track developments around the Strait of Hormuz closely. He said a sustained recovery in shipping flows could further unwind the geopolitical premium in crude and offer relief to emerging-market equities, while fresh disruptions could quickly reverse that trend.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)