Oil Price Today (August 20): Crude oil above $92/barrel as Trump vows ‘tremendous’ economic warfare on Iran

Oil prices remained above $92 per barrel in early trade on Thursday as investors continued to remain on the edge amid fresh escalations in the US-Iran war, spiking concerns around the security of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Brent crude futures rose 55 cents, or 0.6 per cent, to $92.17, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained 25 cents to $84.64 a barrel, extending gains. Both Brent and WTI benchmarks jumped for a fourth straight session on Wednesday, settling at their highest since July 24.

"Oil prices remained elevated as the market is supported by sporadic attacks in the Middle East ⁠but lacks ‌fresh momentum without a major escalation," Reuters quoted Hiroyuki Kikukawa, chief strategist of Nissan Securities Investment, a unit of Nissan Securities, as saying.


"The ⁠market is likely to maintain a gradual upward trend given uncertainty over peace talks and tensions involving the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran," the analyst further said.

With the war in its sixth month, Iran's military has begun signalling a shift from retaliation to offence. Iran's supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei outlined that approach in a reshuffle of top military commanders earlier this month, calling for "strengthening maximum deterrence and preparing to conduct large-scale offensive operations against the enemy".

Last week, a deputy commander of Iran's Revolutionary Guards indicated that Tehran was revising its military doctrine to give "offensive operations" strategic priority.

Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump has warned of economic consequences against any country that provided "any type of lifeline to Iran". In a message posted on social media on Wednesday evening, Trump promised "Economic Warfare and Isolation on an unprecedented scale," although details were scant. Iran has faced continuous punitive economic sanctions for nearly 50 years, since the Islamic Revolution of 1979.

Also read |India's July crude oil imports rise over 9% month-on-month

"ANY country that allows its financial institutions, businesses, airports, or government entities to provide any type ⁠of lifeline ‌to Iran will itself face TREMENDOUS Economic Consequences," Trump wrote.

China purchases more than 80% of Iran's shipped oil, according to 2025 data from analytics ‌firm Kpler, cited by Reuters, but for the US to engage in further economic warfare with China, a major exporter to the country including of vital rare-earth minerals, risks retaliation.

What lies ahead?

JPMorgan estimated that every additional month of disruption could add around $7 to $8 a barrel to Brent prices. If the disruption lasts for three months, the bank expects average monthly Brent prices to reach around $114 a barrel.

Goldman Sachs has also warned that Brent could rise to $120 a barrel if shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, the world's most important oil transit route, continue. At the same time, Goldman Sachs expects tensions in the Middle East to eventually ease under its base case. The Wall Street bank forecasts Brent to average $80 a barrel in the fourth quarter and $75 a barrel next year. It said risks remained tilted to the upside, as disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea could last longer than expected.

Also read | Oil prices steady as investors assess US-Iran war outlook

(With inputs from agencies)

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