Oil Price Today (April 22): Crude oil prices hover near $100 despite Iran war ceasefire extension. Here’s why

Crude oil prices showed little movement in early Asian trade on Wednesday even after US President Donald Trump extended the ceasefire with Iran to allow more time for a unified proposal to end the West Asia conflict, which is nearing the two-month mark.

In a post on Truth Social, Trump said the US would refrain from launching fresh attacks on Iran but would continue blocking ships linked to the country until discussions are concluded, a move that Iranian leaders have described as an act of war.

Crude oil price on April 22

Brent crude hovered around $98 per barrel after rising almost 10% over the last two sessions, while West Texas Intermediate traded near $90 per barrel. On Tuesday, Brent briefly tested the $100 mark after US Vice President JD Vance cancelled his planned visit to Pakistan to take part in a second round of talks with Iran.

Shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz, a key route that typically carries about 20% of global oil and LNG supplies, remained largely stalled on Tuesday. Shipping data showed that only three vessels crossed the waterway over the past 24 hours, Reuters reported.

In a separate development, the Israeli military said Hezbollah launched rockets at its troops in southern Lebanon, accusing the Iran-backed group of breaching the ceasefire ahead of the U.S.-mediated talks with Lebanon this week. Hezbollah has not issued any immediate response.

Market movements remain highly sensitive to developments, with oil prices reacting sharply to changing signals rather than any tangible improvement in supply. Sporadic vessel movement through the strait continues to underline the uncertainty around this key global energy route. Even if tensions ease, experts expect a full recovery in oil flows to take several months.

Macquarie noted that even with easing tensions, crude prices are likely to stay supported in the $85 to $90 range, with a gradual move towards $110 as flows normalize. It also warned that if disruptions continue through April, Brent could spike to as high as $150 per barrel.

Analysts broadly believe the market may be entering a phase of structurally higher prices. With the ceasefire seen as temporary, a return to pre-conflict levels of $70 to $75 may take time. In the near term, prices are expected to fluctuate between $80 to $85 on the downside and $95 to $100 on the upside.

Nuvama Institutional Equities added that a prolonged closure of the strait, which handles about 20 million barrels per day, could push crude prices into the $110 to $150 range.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)