Gold's bull run could get bigger: Why Goldman Sachs raised 2026 target price

Gold's long-running rally has received fresh validation after Goldman Sachs raised its end-2026 price target for the yellow metal to $5,400 per ounce, up from an earlier forecast of $4,900, according to Reuters. The upgrade reflects what the brokerage sees as a structural shift in demand, driven by private investors and emerging-market central banks steadily diversifying away from traditional reserve assets.

Goldman's revised view rests on the assumption that private-sector buyers, who have increasingly turned to gold as protection against global policy uncertainty, are unlikely to unwind their positions in 2026. According to the broker, this cohort has been a key reason behind gold repeatedly overshooting earlier forecasts, and their continued presence effectively raises the base level for future prices.

The brokerage also expects support from the West. Gold-backed exchange-traded funds, which saw outflows during periods of high interest rates, are projected to see renewed inflows as the Federal Reserve moves toward easier monetary policy. Goldman expects the Fed to cut rates by around 50 basis points in 2026, a backdrop that typically favours non-yielding assets such as gold.


On the official side, central banks -- particularly from emerging markets -- are expected to remain consistent buyers. Goldman estimates average central-bank purchases of around 60 tonnes in 2026, reflecting a continued push to diversify reserves amid geopolitical fragmentation and shifting global power dynamics.

That said, a sharp and sustained reduction in uncertainty around global monetary policy could reduce the need for gold as a hedge, potentially triggering profit-taking by macro investors and putting pressure on prices.

In India, gold prices have seen near-term volatility even as the broader trend remains positive. Jateen Trivedi, Vice President for commodities and currency research at LKP Securities, said domestic prices recently corrected by about Rs 1,400 to around Rs 1,51,200 following profit booking. This came after easing geopolitical concerns and comments pointing to improved trade relations between India and the US.

While international prices remained firm near $4,825, the domestic premium cooled after MCX gold slipped from its recent peak of around Rs 1,58,500. According to Trivedi, attention will now turn to the US Federal Reserve’s policy decision later this month and India’s Union Budget on February 1, both of which could influence currency moves and short-term volatility. Over the near term, he expects gold in India to trade within a wide band of roughly Rs 1,45,000 to Rs 1,58,000.

Bigger picture: $7,000 not off the table

Beyond Goldman's call, domestic brokerages are even more optimistic on the longer-term cycle. SAMCO Securities recently highlighted that gold's rally, after hitting fresh record highs near $4,880 per ounce and delivering gains of about 70% in 2025, has reinforced the strength of its long-term structure.

Apurva Sheth, Head of Research at SAMCO Securities, said that periods of consolidation after sharp rallies should be seen as healthy pauses rather than signs of exhaustion. Using Fibonacci extension analysis, SAMCO has outlined a long-term target of around $7,040 per ounce, suggesting significant upside potential if the current cycle continues to unfold.

In Sheth's view, gold is increasingly behaving as a core portfolio anchor, offering diversification and stability rather than just tactical trading opportunities.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)