Goldman Sachs raises oil price forecast for Q4 of 2026

Goldman Sachs raised its Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude forecasts for the fourth quarter of 2026 by $6 to $60 and $56 respectively, citing lower-than-expected OECD stocks, even as it continues to assume no ‌Iran-related supply ⁠disruption ⁠and maintains its view of a 2026 surplus.

In a note dated Sunday, the bank said it expects OPEC+ to begin gradually increasing production in the second quarter of 2026, given that OECD inventories have not built.

The ⁠bank maintained ‌its 2026 surplus forecast of 2.3 million barrels per day (bpd), assuming ⁠no major supply disruption and no Russia-Ukraine peace.


The bank said its 2026 surplus reflects offsetting 0.2 million bpd downgrades to supply and demand on slightly softer growth in Asia.

Goldman, however, expects downside risks of $5 for Brent and $8 for WTI ‌for the fourth quarter of 2026 if potential sanctions relief for Iran or Russia accelerates ⁠landed stock builds and unlocks higher supply in the longer term.

It expects Brent and WTI to average $65 and $61, respectively, in 2027 and to rise to $70 and $66 by December 2027 on the back of solid demand and slowing supply growth.